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Co-Movement Of Australian State Business Cycles




We use a variety of techniques to examine the nature and degree of co-movement among Australian state business cycles. Consistent with the results of Dixon and Shepherd (2001), we find that these cycles move quite closely together, with particularly strong links between the cycles of the larger states. We then seek to understand the causes of this co-movement by using an unobserved components model to distinguish between various shocks and their transmission. Our model implies that the major source of this co-movement in state activity is the commonality of shocks affecting state cycles. In contrast, spillovers of region-specific shocks appear to play only a minor role in creating co-movement, though region-specific shocks themselves have a moderate influence on cyclical fluctuations. These findings are consistent with the results of recent studies for the United States, Canada and Europe, where common shocks have also been found to dominate regional cyclical activity. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/ University of Adelaide and Flinders University .

Suggested Citation

  • David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2007. "Co-Movement Of Australian State Business Cycles ," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 360-374, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:46:y:2007:i:4:p:360-374

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    3. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
    4. Viv Hall & Kunhong Kim & Robert Buckle, 1998. "Pacific rim business cycle analysis: Synchronisation and volatility," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 129-159.
    5. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1999. "Labour Market Adjustment: Evidence on Interstate LabourMobility," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 32(3), pages 249-263.
    6. Dixon, Robert & Shepherd, David, 2001. "Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(238), pages 252-269, September.
    7. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    8. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1996. "The role of international factors in the business cycle: A multi-country study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 85-104, February.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, September.
    10. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
    11. Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1997. "Regional economies: separating trends from cycles," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 19-31.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2013. "Regional Dimensions of the Australian Business Cycle," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 264-281, February.
    2. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Gatfaoui, Jamel & Girardin, Eric, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 294-306.
    4. Viv Hall & John McDermott, 2008. "An Unobserved Components Common Cycle For Australia? Implications For A Common Currency," CAMA Working Papers 2008-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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