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The Method Of Simulated Maximum Likelihood For The Estimaton Of Dynamic Ordered Probit: An Application To Country-Risk For Non-Developed Countries

  • González, M.

    ()

  • Minguez, R.

    ()

This paper aims to give a detailed explanation of the econometric methodology necessary to estimate dynamic probit models with ordinal dependent variables. A typology of cases are established which appear when considering different choices of individual heterogeneity along with time correlation. To be able to estimate by maximum likelihood the models which come out of the different alternatives proposed, simulation techniques are used and put into practice by the GHK simulator and, in this way, estimators by simulated maximum likelihood are obtained. Finally, all the models described are used to measure and determine the macroeconomic factors which explain the ratings of country-risk in non-developed countries.

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File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/ijaeqs233.pdf
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Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies .

Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 99-133

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:2:y2005:i:3_3
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  1. Axel Borsch-Supan & Vassilis Hajivassiliou & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1992. "Health, Children, and Elderly Living Arrangements: A Multiperiod-Multinomial Probit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Autocorrelated Errors," NBER Chapters, in: Topics in the Economics of Aging, pages 79-108 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-, 1990. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Working papers 3234-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  3. Campbell R. Harvey & Guofu Zhou, 1993. "International asset pricing with alternative distributional specifications," CEMA Working Papers 277, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  4. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555.
  5. Lee, Suk Hun, 1993. "Are the credit ratings assigned by bankers based on the willingness of LDC borrowers to repay?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 349-359, April.
  6. John Geweke & Michael Keane & David Runkle, 1994. "Alternative computational approaches to inference in the multinomial probit model," Staff Report 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. repec:cep:stiecm:/1997/328 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Jerry A. Hausman & Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, . "An Ordered Probit Analysis of Transaction Stock Prices (Reprint 029)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 26-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  9. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis & McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul, 1996. "Simulation of multivariate normal rectangle probabilities and their derivatives theoretical and computational results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 85-134.
  10. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
  11. Cheung, S., 1996. "Provincial Credit Rating in Canada: An Ordered Probit Analysis," Working Papers 96-6, Bank of Canada.
  12. Liliana Schumacher & Mario I. Bléjer, 1998. "Central Bank Vulnerability and the Credibility of Commitments; A Value-At-Risk Approach to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 98/65, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Breitung, Jörg & Lechner, Michael, 1998. "Alternative GMM methods for nonlinear panel data models," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,81, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  14. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Axel Borsch-Supan, 1990. "Smooth Unbiased Multivariate Probability Simulators for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 960, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Joachim Inkmann, 1999. "Misspecified heteroskedasticity in the panel probit model: A small sample comparison of GMM and SML estimators," Finance 9904003, EconWPA.
  16. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Economic, Financial, and Fundamental Global Risk In and Out of the EMU," NBER Working Papers 6967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Andrew Berg & Rebecca N. Coke, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits; An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction," IMF Working Papers 04/39, International Monetary Fund.
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