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An Ordered Probit Analysis of Transaction Stock Prices (Reprint 029)

Author

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  • Jerry A. Hausman
  • Andrew W. Lo
  • Craig A. MacKinlay

Abstract

We estimate the conditional distribution of trade-to-trade price changes using ordered probit, a statistical model for discrete random variables. Such an approach takes into account the fact that transaction price changes occur in discrete increments, typically eighths of a dollar, and occur at irregularly spaced time intervals. Unlike existing continuous-time/discrete-state models of discrete transaction prices, ordered probit can capture the effects of other economic variables on price exchanges, such as volume, past price changes, and the time between trades. Using 1988 transactions data for over 100 randomly chosen U.S. stocks, we estimate the ordered probit model via maximum likelihood and use the parameter estimates to measure several transaction-related quantities, such as the price impact of trades of a given size, the tendency towards price reversals from one transaction to the next, and the empirical significance of price discreteness.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerry A. Hausman & Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, "undated". "An Ordered Probit Analysis of Transaction Stock Prices (Reprint 029)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 26-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:26-91
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    Cited by:

    1. Koopman, S.J.M. & Lai, H.N., 1998. "Modelling bid-ask spreads in competitive dealership markets," Discussion Paper 1998-032, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Éric Renault, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-49, CIRANO.
    3. Ghysels, E. & Jasiak, J., 1994. "Stochastic Volatility and time Deformation: An Application of trading Volume and Leverage Effects," Cahiers de recherche 9403, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    4. González, M. & Minguez, R., 2005. "The Method Of Simulated Maximum Likelihood For The Estimaton Of Dynamic Ordered Probit: An Application To Country-Risk For Non-Developed Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 99-133.

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