A Study of Country-Risk for Non-Developed Countries in 1980-2000
This article aims at discovering a coherent method for estimating country risk for non-developed countries, determining the components and most significant factors involved and thus avoiding the “black boxes” represented by external agency ratings. The data used form a panel of 40 non-developed countries, grouped into 5 geographical areas, during the 1985-2000 period (World Bank database, 2002). A credit rating is allocated to the countries concerned based on criteria similar to those applied to business solvency, and we then attempt to explain this rating by other macroeconomic factors obtained from the same database. The model employed to determine the probabilities corresponding to each individual at each moment in time and according to the allocated rating, is an ordered probit on panel data. The results obtained indicate that there is a high degree of time correlation in country credit ratings and, furthermore, that the probability of their insolvency is also influenced by random effects of heterogeneity.
Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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- Geweke, John & Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David, 1994.
"Alternative Computational Approaches to Inference in the Multinomial Probit Model,"
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- Inkmann, Joachim, 2000. "Misspecified heteroskedasticity in the panel probit model: A small sample comparison of GMM and SML estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 227-259, August.
- Joachim Inkmann, 1999. "Misspecified heteroskedasticity in the panel probit model: A small sample comparison of GMM and SML estimators," Finance 9904003, EconWPA.
- Joachim Inkmann, 1999. "Misspecified heteroskedasticity in the panel probit model: A small sample comparison of GMM and SML estimators," CoFE Discussion Paper 99-04, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
- Andrew Berg & Rebecca N. Coke, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits; An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction," IMF Working Papers 04/39, International Monetary Fund. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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