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Thoughts on the origins of the Asia crisis: impulses and propagation mechanisms

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  • Reuven Glick

Abstract

The traditional fundamentals suggested by first and second-generation of crisis models did not provide much indication of an impending crisis in Asia. Growing current account deficits and somewhat overvalued real exchange rates suggested some need to curtail domestic demand and/or engineer nominal currency depreciation, but did not suggest a crisis of the magnitude that has occurred. ; Nevertheless, to a large extent, the Asian crisis can be explained in terms of impulses and propagation mechanisms related to fundamentals, specifically general weaknesses and distortions in the financial sector. These included relationship lending practices, excessive risk taking, and inadequate financial supervision and regulation. The effects of these factors was cumulative and increased the vulnerability of Asia to bad shocks. Once the crisis hit, various mechanisms magnified its initial impact. These included the effects of excessive leverage, collateralized lending, competitive devaluations, and exposure of unhedged foreign liabilities. Elements of illiquidity-based financial panic may also have played a role. It is important to emphasize, however, the difficulty in identifying whether the motivation for the panic was based in a spontaneous shift in creditor confidence or to changing fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Reuven Glick, 1998. "Thoughts on the origins of the Asia crisis: impulses and propagation mechanisms," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:98-07
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    Cited by:

    1. Bumba Mukherjee & Benjamin E. Bagozzi, 2013. "The IMF, Domestic Public Sector Banks, and Currency Crises in Developing States," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 1-29, January.
    2. Pablo Bustelo & Clara Garcia & Iliana Olivie, 1999. "Global and Domestic Factors of Financial Crises in Emerging Economies: Lessons from the East Asian Episodes (1997-1999)," Working Papers 002, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    3. Wink Joosten, 2004. "The Asian Financial Crisis in Retrospect: What Happened? What Can We Conclude?," CPB Memorandum 87, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Wink Joosten, 2004. "The Asian Financial Crisis in Retrospect: What Happened? What Can We Conclude?," CPB Memorandum 87.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Ryuzo Miyao, 2004. "Economic Fundamentals or Financial Panic? An Empirical Study on the Origins of the Asian Crisis," Discussion Paper Series 151, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.

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