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What do current account reversals in OECD countries tell us about the US case?


  • Leo de Haan
  • Hubert Schokker
  • Anastassia Tcherneva


This study examines macro-economic developments around reversals in current account deficits in 29 OECD countries over four decades and draws some inferences for the present US deficit. Estimates of a probit model indicate that the deepness of the deficit itself, absence of spare production capacity and a beginning real depreciation are factors that increase the likelihood of a current account reversal in the following year. For the US each of these three indicators of a reversal are now on, making a near reversal probable. Over the past 40 years half of the current account deficit reversals in the OECD area were followed by a recession in the countries concerned.

Suggested Citation

  • Leo de Haan & Hubert Schokker & Anastassia Tcherneva, 2006. "What do current account reversals in OECD countries tell us about the US case?," DNB Working Papers 111, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:111

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    Cited by:

    1. Josep Lluís CARRION-I-SILVESTRE & Mariam CAMARERO & Josep LLUÍS CARRION-I-SILVESTRE & Cecilio TAMARIT, "undated". "External Imbalances in a Monetary Union. Does the Lawson Doctrine Apply to Europe?," EcoMod2010 259600036, EcoMod.
    2. Blaise Gnimasoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-31, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Cosimo Pancaro & Christian Saborowski, 2016. "Current Account Reversals in Industrial Countries: does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 107-130, April.
    4. repec:kap:iecepo:v:14:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-016-0341-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Russell Jesse R., 2012. "Disequilibrium in the International Balance of Payments," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, May.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & Gisela Rua, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Global Rebalancing," Finance Working Papers 23258, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    7. Algieri, Bernardina & Bracke, Thierry, 2007. "Patterns of current account adjustment: insights from past experience," Working Paper Series 762, European Central Bank.
    8. Theofilakou, Nancy & Stournaras, Yannis, 2012. "Current account adjustments in OECD countries revisited: The role of the fiscal stance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 719-734.
    9. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2011. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment—Insights from Past Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 401-425, July.

    More about this item


    Current account adjustment; US; forecasting reversals;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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