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What Do Current Account Reversals in OECD Countries Tell Us About the US Case?


  • Leo de Haan
  • Hubert Schokker
  • Anastassia Tcherneva


This study examines macroeconomic developments around reversals in current account deficits in 29 OECD countries over four decades and draws some inferences for the present US deficit. Estimates of a probit model indicate that the deepness of the deficit itself, absence of spare production capacity and a beginning real depreciation are factors that increase the likelihood of a current account reversal in the following year. For the US each of these three indicators of a reversal are now on, making a near reversal probable. Over the past 40 years half of the current account deficit reversals in the OECD area were followed by a recession in the countries concerned. Copyright 2007 The Authors.

Suggested Citation

  • Leo de Haan & Hubert Schokker & Anastassia Tcherneva, 2008. "What Do Current Account Reversals in OECD Countries Tell Us About the US Case?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 286-311, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:2:p:286-311

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    Cited by:

    1. Barry Eichengreen & Gisela Rua, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Global Rebalancing," Finance Working Papers 23258, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Theofilakou, Nancy & Stournaras, Yannis, 2012. "Current account adjustments in OECD countries revisited: The role of the fiscal stance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 719-734.
    3. Algieri, Bernardina & Bracke, Thierry, 2007. "Patterns of current account adjustment: insights from past experience," Working Paper Series 762, European Central Bank.
    4. Josep Lluís CARRION-I-SILVESTRE & Mariam CAMARERO & Josep LLUÍS CARRION-I-SILVESTRE & Cecilio TAMARIT, "undated". "External Imbalances in a Monetary Union. Does the Lawson Doctrine Apply to Europe?," EcoMod2010 259600036, EcoMod.
    5. repec:kap:iecepo:v:14:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-016-0341-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Russell Jesse R., 2012. "Disequilibrium in the International Balance of Payments," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, May.
    7. Cosimo Pancaro & Christian Saborowski, 2016. "Current Account Reversals in Industrial Countries: does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 107-130, April.
    8. Blaise Gnimasoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-31, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2011. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment—Insights from Past Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 401-425, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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