IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbr/cbrwps/wp419.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Imbalances, Under-Consumption and Over-Borrowing: The State of the World Economy and Future Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Cripps, F.
  • Izurieta, A.
  • Singh, A.

Abstract

This paper addresses the question of whether growth convergence can be sustained in the global economy without compromising welfare and without causing major crises. It employs a simplified stock-flow analytical framework to examine the proposition that the pace and pattern of global growth is conditioned by 'under-consumption' in some regions of the world and 'over-borrowing' in other regions. A baseline projection using the Cambridge-Alphametrics model (CAM) illustrates consequences of resumed global imbalances after the 2008-2009 crisis. An alternative scenario exemplifies the case in which China and India shift towards internal income redistribution and domestic demand orientated policies and suggests that this will not be sufficient to correct global imbalances or induce improved growth rates in other developing regions. Finally a more ambitious development perspective is simulated. Such a scenario requires internationally-coordinated policy efforts, with greater role for governments in the management of demand, income distribution and environmental sustainability, as well as measures to reduce instability of exchange rate and commodity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Cripps, F. & Izurieta, A. & Singh, A., 2011. "Global Imbalances, Under-Consumption and Over-Borrowing: The State of the World Economy and Future Policies," Working Papers wp419, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp419
    Note: PRO-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/centre-for-business-research/downloads/working-papers/wp419.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Codrina Rada & Lance Taylor, 2004. "Empty Sources of Growth Accounting, and Empirical Replacements à la Kaldor with Some Beef," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 5(3), pages 45-74.
    2. Claudio H. Dos Santos & Gennaro Zezza, 2007. "A Simplified 'Benchmark” Stock-flow Consistent (SFC) Post-Keynesian Growth Model," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_503, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Harcourt,G. C., 1972. "Some Cambridge Controversies in the Theory of Capital," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521096720, May.
    4. Robert A. Blecker, 1998. "International Capital Mobility, Macroeconomic Imbalances, and the Risk of Global Contraction," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 1998-10, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School, revised Nov 2000.
    5. Paul Davidson, 1996. "Reality and Economic Theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 479-508, July.
    6. Robinson,Joan, 1979. "Aspects of Development and Underdevelopment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521295895, May.
    7. von Arnim, Rudiger, 2009. "Recession and rebalancing: How the housing and credit crises will impact US real activity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 309-324, May.
    8. Nelson Barbosa-Filho & Codrina Rada & Lance Taylor & Luca Zamparelli, 2006. "Fiscal, Foreign, And Private Net Borrowing: Widely Accepted Theories Don’T Closely Fit The Facts," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 177, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. Edwin M. Truman, 2005. "Postponing Global Adjustment: An Analysis of the Pending Adjustment of Global Imbalances," Working Paper Series WP05-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Singh, Ajit, 2011. "Globalization, Openness and Economic Nationalism: Analytical and Conceptual Issues A Foreword to Globalization and Economic Nationalism in Asia," MPRA Paper 53039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ajit Singh, 2012. "Financial Globalization and Human Development," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 135-151, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global economic imbalances; under-consumption and over-borrowing; income distribution; internationally-coordinated policies;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp419. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ruth Newman and Georgie Cohen). General contact details of provider: http://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.