IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedreq/y2010i4qp373-397nv.96no.4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

News shocks and business cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Per Krusell
  • Alisdair McKay

Abstract

This article considers the question, raised by Beaudry and Portier in their recent articles, of whether \\"news shocks\\" can lead to expansions and contractions that look like business cycle movements. News shocks are to be thought of solely as affecting expectations (regarding future events) and thus do not influence current resource restrictions at all. So the question is, for example, whether news about lower future productivity could lead our key aggregate variables?consumption, investment, and employment?to co-move down now. Beaudry and Portier make the point that standard neoclassical models clearly will not allow this outcome, and they, along with other researchers in follow-up work, suggest elaborations on the standard model that would. In the present research, we review this literature and propose a very simple model that does quite well in predicting co-movements in response to news shocks. The model is based on a departure from competitive labor markets: It uses a standard Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides view that unemployment is determined as a function of search/matching frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Per Krusell & Alisdair McKay, 2010. "News shocks and business cycles," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 96(4Q), pages 373-397.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:y:2010:i:4q:p:373-397:n:v.96no.4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_quarterly/2010/q4/pdf/krusell.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877.
    2. Floden, Martin, 2006. "Vintage Capital and Expectations Driven Business Cycles," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 643, Stockholm School of Economics.
    3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June.
    4. Walentin, Karl, 2014. "Expectation driven business cycles with limited enforcement," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 300-303.
    5. Ch. Pissarides., 2011. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
    6. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
    7. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-690, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chao Gu & Han Han & Randall Wright, 2020. "The Effects Of News When Liquidity Matters," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1411-1435, November.
    2. Caterina Mendicino & Sandra Gomes, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    4. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    5. Botezat, Alina, 2017. "Austerity plan announcements and the impact on the employees’ wellbeing," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-16.
    6. Große Steffen, Christoph, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks and non-fundamental debt crises: An ambiguity approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112936, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Toshihiko Mukoyama, 2019. "Heterogeneous Jobs and the Aggregate Labour Market," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 30-50, March.
    2. Arnaud Chéron & Jean‐Olivier Hairault & François Langot, 2011. "Age‐Dependent Employment Protection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(557), pages 1477-1504, December.
    3. Etienne Wasmer & Alexandre Janiak, 2014. "Employment protection and capital-labor ratios," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers 2014-11, Sciences Po Departement of Economics.
    4. Merkl, Christian & van Rens, Thijs, 2019. "Selective hiring and welfare analysis in labor market models," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 117-130.
    5. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    6. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    7. Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Wasmer, Etienne, 2015. "Macroeconomic dynamics in a model of goods, labor, and credit market frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 97-113.
    8. Patrick Kline & Enrico Moretti, 2013. "Place Based Policies with Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 238-243, May.
    9. Hertweck, Matthias S. & Lewis, Vivien & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Going the extra mile: Effort by workers and job-seekers," Discussion Papers 29/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Manning, Alan, 2011. "Imperfect Competition in the Labor Market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 11, pages 973-1041, Elsevier.
    11. A. Devulder, 2014. "Heterogeneity, Unemployment Benefits and Voluntary Labor Force Participation," Working papers 493, Banque de France.
    12. Guillaume Vuillemey & Etienne Wasmer, 2016. "Frictional Unemployment and Stochastic Bubbles," Sciences Po publications 10265, Sciences Po.
    13. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components: The impact of labour market reforms in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100499, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Li, Jia & Liao, Zhipeng, 2020. "Uniform nonparametric inference for time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 38-51.
    15. Janiak, Alexandre, 2013. "Structural unemployment and the costs of firm entry and exit," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 1-19.
    16. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii & Sergiy Stetsenko, 2016. "Taxation and Unemployment in Models with Heterogeneous Workers," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 161-189, January.
    17. Sabine Klinger & Enzo Weber, 2016. "Decomposing Beveridge Curve Dynamics By Correlated Unobserved Components," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 877-894, December.
    18. Vuillemey, Guillaume & Wasmer, Etienne, 2020. "Frictional unemployment with stochastic bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    19. Zhang Min, 2008. "Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Job Vacancies: A Comparison between Canada and the United States," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-37, October.
    20. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Business cycles;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:y:2010:i:4q:p:373-397:n:v.96no.4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbrius.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbrius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.