Inflation Forecasting in Chile
This study estimates two models of Chilean inflation with time-varying parameters during the sample period 1990-1999. The first model is based on the Phillips curve and the second represents a small open economy with an inflation-targeting framework. The out-of-sample inflation forecasts of the two models are compared with the out-of-sample inflation forecasts produced by simple time series models à la Box-Jenkins. The most important results are: inflation forecasts produced by models that include the official, pre-announced inflation target are better that those produced by models that do not include it; the Phillips curve model produces better out-of-sample forecasts than the small open economy model; although for the short run the simple Box-Jenkins models produce better out-of-sample forecasts than the Phillips curve model, their forecasting ability deteriorates rapidly in the medium term. In general, including Markov-switching in the two models does not help to explain a significant part of the conditional variance in the forecast error. It is important to stress, however, that as the monetary policy regime enters its steady state in 2001, the relative ranking of the inflation forecast models may change.
Volume (Year): 4 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 1989. "The Time-Varying-Parameter Model for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case of the Lucas Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(4), pages 433-40, October.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997.
"Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Kim, Chang-Jin, 1993. "Sources of Monetary Growth Uncertainty and Economic Activity: The Time-Varying-Parameter Model with Heteroskedastic Disturbances," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 483-92, August.
- Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1999.
"Issues in the design of monetary policy rules,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530
- Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, June.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, .
"Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model,"
GSIA Working Papers
1998-22, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of operational policy rules in an estimated semi-classical structural model," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," NBER Working Papers 6599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold & Rudebusch, .
"Measuring Business Cycle: A Modern Perspective,"
_061, University of Pennsylvania.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997.
"Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D & Hamilton, James D, 1986. "Estimation of Unobserved Expected Monthly Inflation Using Kalman Filtering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(2), pages 147-60, April.
- Wong, Ka-fu, 2000. "Variability in the Effects of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 179-98, May.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kim, C-J., 1991.
"Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching,"
91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Brunner, Karl & Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H., 1983. "Money and economic activity, inventories and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 281-319.
- Weshah Razzak, 1997. "The inflation-output trade-off: Is the Phillips Curve symmetric? A policy lesson from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Francisco de A. Nadal-De Simone, 2001. "Inflation targeting in a small open economy: The behaviour of price variables," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 101-142.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
- Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-91, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:4:y:2001:i:3:p:59-85. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.