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Variability in the Effects of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity


  • Wong, Ka-fu


This paper documents and interprets the variability in the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using the method of rolling vector autoregression and United States data from 1959:01 to 1994:12. While I find robust support for short-run price stickiness and long-run output neutrality, I also find that the responses of output and price levels to monetary shocks are otherwise quite variable. Seven episodes of differing responses are identified. The effects of monetary policy are found to be stronger when monetary shocks are negative, and are related to some gradual changes in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Wong, Ka-fu, 2000. "Variability in the Effects of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 179-198, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:32:y:2000:i:2:p:179-98

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Lohmann, Susanne, 1992. "Optimal Commitment in Monetary Policy: Credibility versus Flexibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 273-286, March.
    3. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April.
    4. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Oh, Seonghwan, 1995. "When and how much to talk credibility and flexibility in monetary policy with private information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 341-357, April.
    5. Lewis, Karen K, 1991. "Why Doesn't Society Minimize Central Bank Secrecy?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 403-415, July.
    6. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1986. "Monetary mystique: Secrecy and central banking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 63-92, January.
    7. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-167, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
    2. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
    3. Jose de Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 155-208, January.
    4. Rodrigo Caputo & Gustavo Leyva & Michael Pedersen, 2014. "The Changing Nature of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations. New Evidence for Inflation-Targeting Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 730, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. repec:eee:jmacro:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:127-144 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. P N Snowden & M A Salisu & N Taher, 2000. "Oiling the wheels: credit and monetary neutrality in Saudi Arabia," Working Papers 539748, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    7. Østrup, Finn, 2006. "The Choice of Monetary Regime," Working Papers 2005-2, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    8. Pedro Raffy Vartanian, 2008. "Choques monetários e cambiais sob regimes de câmbio flutuante nos países membros do Mercosul: há indícios de convergência macroeconômica?," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211410580, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. repec:arp:ijwpds:2016:p:69-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2001. "Inflation Forecasting in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 4(3), pages 59-85, December.
    11. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen, 2004. "Macroeconomic rationality and Lucas' misperceptions model: further evidence from 41 countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 227-241.
    12. Gilles DUFRENOT & Val=E9rie MIGNON & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLE, 2003. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigatio= n=20 using MRSTAR models," Macroeconomics 0309002, EconWPA.
    13. Pablo Pincheira B & Álvaro García M, 2007. "Oil Shocks and Inflation The Case Of Chile and a Sample of Industrial Countries," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(1), pages 5-36, April.
    14. Dufrenot, Gilles & Mignon, Valerie & Peguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2004. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigation using MRSTAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-71, January.

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