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Budget deficits and interest rates: a fresh perspective

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  • Ari Aisen
  • David Hauner

Abstract

We extend the literature on budget deficits and interest rates in three ways: we examine both advanced and emerging economies and for the first time a large emerging market panel; explore interactions to explain some of the heterogeneity in the literature; and apply system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). There is overall a highly significant positive effect of budget deficits on interest rates, but the effect depends on interaction terms and is only significant under one of the several conditions: deficits are high, mostly domestically financed, or interact with high domestic debt; financial openness is low; interest rates are liberalized; or financial depth is low.

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  • Ari Aisen & David Hauner, 2013. "Budget deficits and interest rates: a fresh perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2501-2510, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:17:p:2501-2510
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.667557
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    Cited by:

    1. Oseni O. Isiaq & Adesoye A. Bolaji, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Term Structure of Interest Rate in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(2), pages 70-83, April.
    2. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    3. Yu Hsing, 2016. "Is Real Depreciation Contractionary? The Case of South Korea," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1951-1958.
    4. Malešević Perović, Lena, 2015. "The impact of fiscal positions on government bond yields in CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 301-316.
    5. repec:voj:journl:v:63:y:2016:i:5:p:603-625 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bevan, David L., 2010. "Fiscal policy issues for Tanzania," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 36380, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Mohanty, Ranjan Kumar & Sahoo, Biresh K., 2017. "Examining the Eco-Macroeconomic Performance Index of India: A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach," Working Papers 17/202, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    8. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2015. "Regional effects of federal tax shocks," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 343-360, October.
    9. Popescu, Razvan-Florin & Prodan, Sergiu, 2010. "The analysis of budget rules and macroeconomic implications in several developed economies," MPRA Paper 25897, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    10. repec:bla:econom:v:84:y:2017:i:335:p:541-558 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:dug:journl:y:2016:i:2:p:70-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Nkalu, Chigozie Nelson, 2015. "The effects of budget deficits on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria and Ghana (1970 - 2013)," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(10), pages 167-180, October.
    13. Claeys, Peter & Moreno, Rosina & Suriñach, Jordi, 2012. "Debt, interest rates, and integration of financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 48-59.
    14. Ayesha Mushtaq & Khalid Zaman, 2013. "Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Budget Deficit in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Oeconomics of Knowledge, Saphira Publishing House, vol. 5(4), pages 17-33, October.
    15. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Ieva Sakalauskaite, 2017. "Long-term Interest Rates and Public Debt Maturity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(335), pages 541-558, July.
    16. Lanzafame, Matteo & Nogueira, Reginaldo, 2013. "Inflation targeting and interest rates," MPRA Paper 46153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Tuan Van Nguyen, 2013. "Do Budget Deficits Affect Real Interest Rates? A Test of Ricardian Equivalence Theorem," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 9(5), pages 86-102, October.
    18. Ajax Moreira & Katia Rocha, 2009. "A Política Fiscal e as Taxas de Juros Domésticas nos Países Emergentes," Discussion Papers 1438, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    19. Tang, Hsiao Chink & Liu, Philip & Cheung, Eddie C., 2013. "Changing impact of fiscal policy on selected ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 103-116.
    20. Perveen, Asma & Munir, Kashif, 2017. "Impact of Total, Internal and External Government Debt on Interest Rate in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 83427, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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