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Fiscal Policy and Growth: Do Financial Crises make a Difference?

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  • António Afonso
  • Hans Peter Grüner
  • Christina Kolerus

Abstract

In this paper we assess to what extent in the existence of a financial crisis, government spending can contribute to mitigate economic downturns in the short run and whether such impact differs in crisis and non crisis times. We use panel analysis for a set of OECD and non-OECD countries for the period 1981-2007. The fiscal multiplier for the full sample for instrumented regular and crisis spending is about 0.6-0.8 considering the sample average government spending share of GDP of about one third. Altogether, we cannot reject the hypothesis that crisis spending and regular spending have the same impact using a variation of controls, sub-samples and specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Hans Peter Grüner & Christina Kolerus, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Growth: Do Financial Crises make a Difference?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/10, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp102010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. de Arcangelis, Giuseppe & Lamartina, Serena, 2003. "Identifying fiscal shocks and policy regimes in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 281, European Central Bank.
    3. Röger, Werner & Székely, Istvan P. & Turrini, Alessandro Antonio, 2010. "Banking crises, Output Loss and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2006. "Changing Patterns of Domestic and Cross-Border Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Europe and the US," Working Papers 2006-24, CEPII research center.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    2. Hans-Werner Sinn & Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Zur Debatte »Sparen oder Wachstum«," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(10), pages 07-08, May.
    3. Bruno Martorano, 2013. "The Australian Household Stimulus Package: Lessons from the recent economic crisis," Papers inwopa697, Innocenti Working Papers.
    4. António Afonso & Jaromír Baxa & Michal Slavík, 2018. "Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 395-423, March.
    5. Tobias Cwik & Volker Wieland, 2011. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(67), pages 493-549, July.
    6. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    7. repec:bla:ausecp:v:56:y:2017:i:2:p:119-133 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    9. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2013. "Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies," IMF Working Papers 13/238, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Sebastian Gechert, 2017. "On theories and estimation techniques of fiscal multipliers," FMM Working Paper 11-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    11. Bruno Martorano, 2015. "Lessons from the recent economic crisis: the Australian household stimulus package," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 309-327, May.
    12. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    13. Aeggarchat Sirisankanan, 2014. "Rethinking Thailand¡¯S Growth Policies," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(2), pages 51-73, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; financial crisis; growth; OECD; EU; panel analysis.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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