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What are the Effects of Tax Changes in the United Kingdom? New Evidence from a Narrative Evaluation

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  • James Cloyne

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of tax changes on the U.K. economy. Identification is achieved by isolating the ‘exogenous’ tax policy shocks in the post-war U.K. economy using a narrative strategy as in Romer and Romer (2010). The resulting tax changes are shown to be unforecastable on the basis of past macroeconomic data. I find that a 1 per cent cut in taxes stimulates GDP by 0.6 per cent on impact and by 2.5 per cent over three years. These findings are remarkably similar to the corresponding estimates for the United States. The results reinforce the view that tax changes do indeed have powerful, persistent and significant effects on the economy. Finally, ‘exogenous’ tax changes are shown to have contributed to major episodes in the U.K. business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • James Cloyne, 2011. "What are the Effects of Tax Changes in the United Kingdom? New Evidence from a Narrative Evaluation," CESifo Working Paper Series 3433, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3433
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp3433.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    2. repec:nbr:nberch:13348 is not listed on IDEAS
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    4. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. High top tax rates drive away inventors
      by Ben Southwood in Adam Smith Institute on 2015-03-16 16:52:12
    2. Four basic points on deficits
      by Ben Southwood in Adam Smith Institute on 2015-04-22 15:25:07
    3. An extra reason to dislike deficits and government debt
      by Ben Southwood in Adam Smith Institute on 2015-04-24 16:10:44

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    2. Karel Mertens & José L. Montiel Olea, 2013. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 19171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Federico Revelli, 2012. "Business taxation and economic performance in hierarchical government structures," Working Papers 2012/12, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    4. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    5. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2014. "A reconciliation of SVAR and narrative estimates of tax multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 1-19.
    7. Nicolas Carnot & Francisco de Castro, 2015. "The Discretionary Fiscal Effort: An Assessment of Fiscal Policy and Its Output Effect," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 63-94, December.
    8. Jocelyn Boussard & Francisco de Castro & Matteo Salto, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and Public Debt Dynamics in Consolidations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 460, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Wendy Carlin, 2013. "Real Exchange Rate Adjustment, Wage-Setting Institutions, and Fiscal Stabilization Policy: Lessons of the Eurozone's First Decade," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(3), pages 489-519, September.
    10. Florian Wöhlbier & Caterina Astarita & Gilles Mourre, 2014. "Consolidation on the revenue side and growth-friendly tax structures: an indicator based approach," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 513, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Albrizio, Silvia & Lamp, Stefan, 2014. "The investment effect of fiscal consolidation," Economics Working Papers ECO2014/10, European University Institute.
    12. Cloyne, James S, 2011. "Government spending shocks, wealth effects and distortionary taxes," MPRA Paper 41689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Daniel Leigh & Andrea Pescatori & Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 11/158, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Cloyne, James S, 2010. "Discretionary tax shocks in the United Kingdom 1945-2009: a narrative account and dataset," MPRA Paper 34913, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sebastian Gechert & Christoph Paetz & Paloma Villanueva, 2016. "Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up? Reconcilling the Effects of Tax and Transfer Shocks on Output," IMK Working Paper 169-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    16. Manuel Coutinho Pereira & Lara Wemans, 2013. "The macroeconomic effects of legislated tax changes in Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Anja Baum & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/286, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; tax shocks; tax multiplier; narrative approach; business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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