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The investment effect of fiscal consolidation

Listed author(s):
  • Albrizio, Silvia
  • Lamp, Stefan
Registered author(s):

    This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal consolidation, business plans and firm investment. Based on a detailed narrative of tax changes in Germany covering 40 years of fiscal adjustments, we define and exploit the exogenous variation of tax bills to quantify the effect of tax changes on firm future investment plans as well as on realized investment. We find that firms in the manufacturing sector revise downwards their planned investment by about 4% subsequently to a tax increase equal to 1% of the value added in the total manufacturing industry. On the contrary realized investment growth drops by around 8% at impact. Furthermore we find that income and consumption taxes are most harmful to investment and that firms base their investment plans considering laws currently under discussion, anticipating future tax changes. Not taking into account this anticipation effect would lead to strongly biased estimates.

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    File URL: http://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/32878/ECO_2014_10.pdf
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    Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2014/10.

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    Date of creation: 2014
    Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2014/10
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    1. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    2. Christian Seiler, 2012. "The Data Sets of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center – A Guide for Researchers," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 132(4), pages 609-618.
    3. Alesina, Alberto Francesco & Ardagna, Silvia, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," Scholarly Articles 22801844, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-181, May.
    5. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    6. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2014. "Do financial frictions amplify fiscal policy? Evidence from business investment stimulus," Working Papers 1415, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    7. Robert S. Chirinko & Steven M. Fazzari & Andrew P. Meyer, 1996. "What Do Micro Data Reveal About the User Cost Elasticity?: New Evidence on the Responsiveness of Business Capital Formation," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_175, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
    9. Cloyne, James & Surico, Paolo, 2013. "Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes," CEPR Discussion Papers 9649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    11. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    13. James Cloyne, 2011. "What are the Effects of Tax Changes in the United Kingdom? New Evidence from a Narrative Evaluation," CESifo Working Paper Series 3433, CESifo Group Munich.
    14. James Cloyne, 2013. "Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1507-1528, June.
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