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The Scarcity Value of Treasury Collateral: Repo Market Effects of Security-Specific Supply and Demand Factors

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Abstract

In the repo market, forward agreements are security-specific (i.e., there are no deliverable substitutes), which makes it an ideal place to measure the value of fluctuations in a security's available supply. In this study, we quantify the scarcity value of Treasury collateral by estimating the impact of security-specific demand and supply factors on the repo rates of all the outstanding U.S. Treasury securities. Our results indicate the existence of an economically and statistically significant scarcity premium, especially for shorter-term securities. The estimated scarcity effect is quite persistent, seems to be reflected in the Treasury market prices, and could in part explain the flow-effects of the Fed's asset purchase programs. More generally, it provides additional evidence in favor of the scarcity channel of quantitative easing. These findings also suggest that, through the same mechanism, the Fed's reverse repo operations could help alleviate potential shortages of high-quality collateral.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefania D'Amico & Roger Fan & Yuriy Kitsul, 2013. "The Scarcity Value of Treasury Collateral: Repo Market Effects of Security-Specific Supply and Demand Factors," Working Paper Series WP-2013-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2013-22
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    Cited by:

    1. Guagliano, Claudia & Mazzacurati, Julien, 2017. "Collateral scarcity premia in euro area repo markets," ESRB Working Paper Series 55, European Systemic Risk Board.
    2. Yuriy Kitsul & Marcelo Ochoa, 2016. "Funding Liquidity Risk and the Cross-section of MBS Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Schlepper, Kathi & Riordan, Ryan & Hofer, Heiko & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2017. "Scarcity effects of QE: A transaction-level analysis in the Bund market," Discussion Papers 06/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. W. Arrata & B. Nguyen & I. Rahmouni-Rousseau & M. Vari, 2017. "Eurosystem’s asset purchases and money market rates," Working papers 652, Banque de France.
    5. Corradin, Stefano & Maddaloni, Angela, 2020. "The importance of being special: Repo markets during the crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 392-429.
    6. W. Arrata & B. Nguyen, 2017. "Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program," Working papers 623, Banque de France.
    7. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Brand, Claus & Ferrante, Lorenzo & Hubert, Antoine, 2019. "From cash- to securities-driven euro area repo markets: the role of financial stress and safe asset scarcity," Working Paper Series 2232, European Central Bank.
    9. Song, Zhaogang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2018. "Quantitative easing auctions of Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 103-124.
    10. Sebastian Infante & Zack Saravay, 2020. "What Drives U.S. Treasury Re-use?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-103r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 24 Aug 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Collateral; securities; repo market; treasury bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

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