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Foreign exchange reserve diversification and the “exorbitant privilege”: Global macroeconomic effects

Author

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  • Cova, Pietro
  • Pagano, Patrizio
  • Pisani, Massimiliano

Abstract

We assess the macroeconomic implications for the global economy of different strategies of official reserve management by developing a large scale new-Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model, calibrated to the euro area, the United States, China and the rest of the world. An increase in the global demand for euros would boost euro area aggregate demand because of the reduction in euro area interest rates (the main benefit associated with the “privilege” of being a global currency). If the higher demand for euros is associated with lower demand for US dollars, then US aggregate demand falls because of higher interest rates, while the external balance improves; countries accumulating reserves continue to run a trade surplus, as exports to the euro area increase. We also compute welfare gains/costs for all economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Cova, Pietro & Pagano, Patrizio & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2016. "Foreign exchange reserve diversification and the “exorbitant privilege”: Global macroeconomic effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 82-101.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:67:y:2016:i:c:p:82-101
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.06.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    2. Roland Beck & Sebastian Weber, 2011. "Should Larger Reserve Holdings Be More Diversified?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 415-444, December.
    3. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba & David Lãpez-Salido, 2008. "Monetary Aggregates and Liquidity in a Neo-Wicksellian Framework," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1667-1698, December.
    4. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 1-66.
    6. Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2014. "Foreign exchange reserve diversification and the "exorbitant privilege"," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 964, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad & López-Salido, David, 2013. "Key currency status: An exorbitant privilege and an extraordinary risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 371-393.
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    11. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:mar10 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global imbalances; Global currency; Dynamic general equilibrium modeling;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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