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Are Tax Cuts Really Expansionary?

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  • N. Gregory Mankiw
  • Lawrence H. Summers

Abstract

In this paper, we re-examine the standard analysis of the short-run effect of a personal tax cut. If consumer spending generates more money demand than other components of GNP, then tax cuts may, by increasing the demand for money, depress aggregate demand. We examine a variety of evidence and conclude that the necessary condition for contractionary tax cuts is probably satisfied for the U.S. economy.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Are Tax Cuts Really Expansionary?," NBER Working Papers 1443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1443
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 539-552, September.
    2. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    4. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert*, G. William, 1978. "Money, income, and sunspots: Measuring economic relationships and the effects of differencing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 637-660, November.
    5. Holmes, James M & Smyth, David J, 1972. "The Specification of the Demand for Money and the Tax Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(1), pages 179-185, Jan.-Feb..
    6. Barsky, Robert B & Mankiw, N Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1986. "Ricardian Consumers with Keynesian Propensities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 676-691, September.
    7. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 683-740.
    8. Cooley, Thomas F & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1981. "Identification and Estimation of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 825-844, December.
    9. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 577-646.
    10. Grossman, Sanford & Weiss, Laurence, 1983. "A Transactions-Based Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 871-880, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. James M. Poterba & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1986. "Money in the Utility Function: An Empirical Implementation," Working papers 408, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Lawrence B. Lindsey, 1985. "Taxpayer Behavior and the Distribution of the 1982 Tax Cut," NBER Working Papers 1760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lawrence B. Lindsey, 1985. "Estimating the Revenue Maximizing Top Personal Tax Rate," NBER Working Papers 1761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
    5. Lawrence B. Lindsey, 1986. "Individual Taxpayer Response to Tax Cuts 1982-1984 with Implications forthe Revenue Maximizing Tax Rate," NBER Working Papers 2069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 57-76, August.

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