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Are Tax Cuts Really Expansionary?

  • N. Gregory Mankiw
  • Lawrence H. Summers

In this paper, we re-examine the standard analysis of the short-run effect of a personal tax cut. If consumer spending generates more money demand than other components of GNP, then tax cuts may, by increasing the demand for money, depress aggregate demand. We examine a variety of evidence and conclude that the necessary condition for contractionary tax cuts is probably satisfied for the U.S. economy.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1443.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1443.

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Date of creation: Jan 1987
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Publication status: published as Mankiw, N. Gregory Mankiw and Lawrence H. Summers. "Money Demand and the Effects of Fiscal Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 18(November 1986): 415-429.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1443
Note: EFG PE
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  1. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 539-52, September.
  3. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  4. Barsky, Robert B & Mankiw, N Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1986. "Ricardian Consumers with Keynesian Propensities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 676-91, September.
  5. Holmes, James M & Smyth, David J, 1972. "The Specification of the Demand for Money and the Tax Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(1), pages 179-85, Jan.-Feb..
  6. Grossman, Sanford & Weiss, Laurence, 1983. "A Transactions-Based Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 871-80, December.
  7. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 577-646.
  8. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 683-740.
  9. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert*, G. William, 1978. "Money, income, and sunspots: Measuring economic relationships and the effects of differencing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 637-660, November.
  10. Cooley, Thomas F & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1981. "Identification and Estimation of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 825-44, December.
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