IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Money Demand Predictability

  • V. Vance Roley
Registered author(s):

    The performance of empirical money demand equations over the past decade raises serious questions about money demand predictability. A variety of specifications were presented to explain past episodes of apparent money demand instability, but their success in predicting future money demand is limited in most instances. In particular, the unprecedented decline in the velocity of Ml during 1982 and 1983 was not captured fullyby any of the previously-modified conventional specifications. This paper evaluates a variety of the approaches and specifications proposed inprevious money demand studies to explain the behavior of the narrowly defined money stock from the mid 1970's through 1983. The empirical results cast doubt on the appropriateness of the conventional money demand specification in both the pre- and post- 1974 periods.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1580.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1580.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Mar 1985
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: published as Roley, V. Vance. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. XVII, No. 4, Part 2, (November 1985), pp. 611-641.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1580
    Note: ME
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
    Phone: 617-868-3900
    Web page: http://www.nber.org
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Jack Carr & Michael R. Darby, 1977. "The Role of Money Supply Shocks in the Short-Run Demand for Money," UCLA Economics Working Papers 098, UCLA Department of Economics.
    2. Lieberman, Charles, 1977. "The Transactions Demand for Money and Technological Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(3), pages 307-17, August.
    3. Edgar L. Feige, 2005. "Expectations And Adjustments In The Monetary Sector," Macroeconomics 0502005, EconWPA.
    4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    5. Gregory C. Chow, 1966. "On the Long-Run and Short-Run Demand for Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 111.
    6. Cooley, Thomas F & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1981. "Identification and Estimation of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 825-44, December.
    7. John A. Tatom, 1983. "Was the 1982 velocity decline unusual?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Aug, pages 5-15.
    8. R. W. Hafer & Scott E. Hein, 1979. "Evidence on the temporal stability of the demand for money relationship in the United States," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Dec, pages 3-14.
    9. Tinsley, P. A. & Garrett, Bonnie & Friar, Monica, 1981. "An expose of disguised deposits," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 117-137, January.
    10. Laumas, G S & Spencer, David E, 1980. "The Stability of the Demand for Money: Evidence from the Post-1973 Period," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 455-59, August.
    11. Hamburger, Michael J., 1977. "Behavior of the money stock : Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 265-288, July.
    12. Roley, V Vance & Walsh, Carl E, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1011-39, Supp..
    13. Buiter, Willem H & Armstrong, Clive A, 1978. "A Didactic Note on the Transactions Demand for Money and Behavior towards Risk: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 529-38, November.
    14. John P. Judd & John L. Scadding, 1982. "What do money market models tell us about how to implement monetary policy: reply," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 108, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Allan H. Meltzer, 1963. "The Demand for Money: The Evidence from the Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 219.
    16. Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1977. "The Substitutability of Money and Near-Monies: A Survey of the Time-Series Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 439-69, June.
    17. Hatanaka, Michio, 1974. "An efficient two-step estimator for the dynamic adjustment model with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 199-220, September.
    18. Friedman, Benjamin Morton, 1977. "Financial Flow Variables and the Short-Run Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 4554309, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    19. Plosser, Charles I & Schwert, G William & White, Halbert, 1982. "Differencing as a Test of Specification," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(3), pages 535-52, October.
    20. Marvin Goodfriend, 1983. "Measurement error and a reinterpretation of the conventional money demand regression," Working Paper 83-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    21. Clower, Robert W & Howitt, Peter W, 1978. "The Transactions Theory of the Demand for Money: A Reconsideration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(3), pages 449-66, June.
    22. Robert J. Gordon, 1984. "The 1981-82 Velocity Decline: A Structural Shift in Income or Money Demand?," NBER Working Papers 1343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert*, G. William, 1978. "Money, income, and sunspots: Measuring economic relationships and the effects of differencing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 637-660, November.
    24. Barro, Robert J & Santomero, Anthony J, 1972. "Household Money Holdings and The Demand Deposit Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 397-413, May.
    25. Klein, Benjamin, 1974. "Competitive Interest Payments on Bank Deposits and the Long-Run Demand for Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 931-49, December.
    26. Robert L. Hetzel, 1982. "The October 1979 regime of monetary control and the behavior of the money supply in 1980," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Jul, pages 3-15.
    27. Carl E. Walsh, 1982. "The effects of alternative operating procedures on economic and financial relationships," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 133-180.
    28. Anderson, Richard G & Rasche, Robert H, 1982. "What Do Money Market Models Tell Us about How to Implement Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(4), pages 796-828, November.
    29. Hamburger, Michael J., 1983. "Recent velocity behavior, the demand for money and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Dec, pages 108-128.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1580. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.