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Money Demand Predictability

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  • V. Vance Roley

Abstract

The performance of empirical money demand equations over the past decade raises serious questions about money demand predictability. A variety of specifications were presented to explain past episodes of apparent money demand instability, but their success in predicting future money demand is limited in most instances. In particular, the unprecedented decline in the velocity of Ml during 1982 and 1983 was not captured fullyby any of the previously-modified conventional specifications. This paper evaluates a variety of the approaches and specifications proposed inprevious money demand studies to explain the behavior of the narrowly defined money stock from the mid 1970's through 1983. The empirical results cast doubt on the appropriateness of the conventional money demand specification in both the pre- and post- 1974 periods.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Vance Roley, 1985. "Money Demand Predictability," NBER Working Papers 1580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1580
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert H. Rasche, 1985. "Interest rate volatility and alternative monetary control procedure," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 46-63.
    2. Michael J. Hamburger, 1987. "A Stable Money Demand Function," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 5(1), pages 34-40, January.
    3. Sergey Drobyshevsky & G.Kuzmicheva & Elena Sinelnikova & Pavel Trunin, 2010. "Modeling monetary demand in the Russian economy over 1999–2008," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 136P.
    4. Werner, Richard A., 2012. "Towards a new research programme on ‘banking and the economy’ — Implications of the Quantity Theory of Credit for the prevention and resolution of banking and debt crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-17.
    5. V. Vance Roley, 1986. "The Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements under Alternative Operating Prosedures and Reserve Requirement Systems," NBER Working Papers 1812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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