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Asset Substitutability and the Impact of Federal Deficits

  • V. Vance Roley
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    In this paper, the role of asset substitutability in determining the impact of debt-financed federal deficits is examined. The issues are first discussed in the context of a simple analytical model in which financial assets are disaggregated into money, federal debt,and corporate bonds. In this model, it is shown that depending on the degree of substitutability among financial assets, a range of possible outcomes associated with a change in the federal deficit is possible.Next, the issue of asset substitutability is examine dempirically in a disaggregated structural model of the Treasury security,corporate bond, and equity markets. Using this model, the implications of larger debt-financed federal deficits are then examined in a series of simulation experiments.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1082.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1082.

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    Date of creation: Feb 1983
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    Publication status: published as Roley, V. Vance. "Asset Substitutability and the Impact of Federal Deficits ." The Economic Consequences of Government Deficits, edited by L. Meyer, Kluwer-Nijhoff Publishing Company, 1983.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1082
    Note: ME
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    1. Blanchard, Olivier J & Plantes, Mary Kay, 1977. "A Note on Gross Substitutability of Financial Assets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(3), pages 769-71, April.
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    3. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1978. "Efficient-Markets Theory: Implications for Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 707-752.
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    6. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
    7. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-32, August.
    8. Infante, Ettore F. & Stein, Jerome L., 1976. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 473-500, November.
    9. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
    10. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H, 1972. "Money, Debt, and Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(5), pages 951-77, Sept.-Oct.
    11. Milton Friedman, 1971. "A Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie71-1, May.
    12. Friedman, Benjamin Morton, 1977. "Financial Flow Variables and the Short-Run Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 4554309, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    13. Kochin, Levis A, 1974. "Are Future Taxes Anticipated by Consumers? Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 385-94, August.
    14. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. Roley, V Vance, 1979. "A Theory of Federal Debt Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 915-26, December.
    16. Martin Feldstein, 1980. "Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 0435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Meyer, Laurence H., 1975. "The balance sheet identity, the government financing constraint, and the crowding-out effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 65-78, January.
    18. James M. Brundy & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1971. "Efficient estimation of simultaneous equations by instrumental variables," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Cohen, Darrel & McMenamin, J Stuart, 1978. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Financially Disaggregated Macroeconomic Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 322-36, August.
    20. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1978. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Growth in a Monetary Economy: A Synthesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, February.
    21. Walsh, Carl E., 1983. "Asset prices, asset stocks and rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 337-349.
    22. Silber, William L, 1970. "Fiscal Policy in IS-LM Analysis: A Correction," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 461-72, November.
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