Structural Models of Interest Rate Determination and Portfolio Behavior in the Corporate and Government Bond Markets
This paper summarizes some recent work in which we have modeled long-term interest rate determination in an explicit demand-supply context, using multi-equation structural models and directly contrasts such models with unrestricted reduced-form models. Wholly apart from questions of disaggregation and institutional detail, the explicitly structural nature of demand-supply models necessitates additional theoretical constructs beyond those required by unrestricted reduced-form models. Some of these conceptual inputs are already available from established portfolio theory, and others represent objects of current or prospective research. Experience to date with structural models of long-term interest rate determination suggests, however, that the exploitation of the richer theoretical framework yields not only insights about portfolio behavior but, very likely, improved interest rate models as well.
|Date of creation:||Jan 1981|
|Publication status:||published as Friedman, Benjamin M. and Roley, V. Vance. "Models of Long-Term Interest Rate Determination." The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 6, No. 3, (Spring 1980), pp. 35-45.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Friedman, Benjamin Morton, 1977. "Financial Flow Variables and the Short-Run Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 4554309, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Multiperiod Consumption-Investment Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 163-174, March.
- J. Tobin, 1958.
"Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
- James Tobin, 1956. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 14, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
- Friedman, Benjamin M, 1979. "Substitution and Expectation Effects on Long-Term Borrowing Behavior and Long-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 131-150, May.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1970. "The Fundamental Approximation Theorem of Portfolio Analysis in terms of Means, Variances and Higher Moments," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 537-542.
- Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Who Puts the Inflation Premium Into Nominal Interests Rates?," NBER Working Papers 0231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Backus, David, et al, 1980. "A Model of U.S. Financial and Nonfinancial Economic Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(2), pages 259-293, Special I.
- David Backus & William C. Brainard & Gary Smith & James Tobin, 1980. "A Model of U.S. Financial and Nonfinancial Economic Behavior," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 548, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
- William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Friedman, Benjamin M, 1977. "Financial Flow Variables and the Short-Run Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 661-689, August.
- James M. Brundy & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1971. "Efficient estimation of simultaneous equations by instrumental variables," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Friedman, Benjamin M, 1978. "Who Puts the Inflation Premium into Nominal Interest Rates?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 833-845, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.