A Test of Portfolio Crowding-Out and Related Issues in Finance
This paper tests hypotheses regarding the parameters in investors'asset demand functions. Most important is the hypothesis that federal bonds are closer substitutes for equity than for money; it is associated with the hypothesis of "portfolio crowding out" by federal borrowing. Previous regression studies of asset demand functions have not been able to obtain precise and plausible estimates for the parameters, without the imposition of prior beliefs. The present paper uses a MLE technique that dominates regression in that it makes full use of the constraint that the parameters are not determined arbitrarily, but rather are determined by mean-variance optimization on the part of the investor. The technique also dominates, on the other hand, previous estimates of the optimal portfolio from ex post return data, in that expected returns are not assumed to be constant over time, or to change slowly, but rather are allowed to fluctuate freely. Thus the framework is consistent with questions such as the effects of a sudden increase in federal debt on the expected returns of the various assets.Some hypotheses are tested where the answer seems clear in advance, such as a negative effect of the supply of money on the expected rate of return on equities. There the results of the MLE technique are much more plausible than the regression results. In the case of greatest controversy, a point estimate shows portfolio crowding in, not portfolio crowding out.
|Date of creation:||Sep 1983|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Frankel, Jeffrey A. "Portfolio Crowding-Out Empirically Estimated," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 100, Supplement, (1985), pp. 1041-1065.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Masson, Paul R, 1978. "Structural Models of the Demand for Bonds and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 45(180), pages 363-77, November.
- William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- William D. Nordhaus & Steven N. Durlauf, 1982. "The Structure of Social Risk," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 648, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Smith, Gary N & Brainard, William C, 1976. "The Value of A Priori Information in Estimating a Financial Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(5), pages 1299-1322, December.
- Blanchard, Olivier J & Plantes, Mary Kay, 1977. "A Note on Gross Substitutability of Financial Assets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(3), pages 769-71, April.
- Barro, Robert J., 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December.
- David Backus & William C. Brainard & Gary Smith & James Tobin, 1980.
"A Model of U.S. Financial and Nonfinancial Economic Behavior,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
548, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Backus, David, et al, 1980. "A Model of U.S. Financial and Nonfinancial Economic Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(2), pages 259-93, Special I.
- Zvi Bodie & Alex Kane & Robert L. McDonald, 1983. "Why Are Real Interest Rates So High?," NBER Working Papers 1141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fair, Ray C & Malkiel, Burton G, 1971. "The Determination of Yield Differentials between Debt Instruments of the Same Maturity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 733-49, November.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & William T. Dickens, 1983.
"Are Asset Demand Functions Determined by CAPM?,"
NBER Working Papers
1113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
- Friedman, Benjamin Morton, 1977. "Financial Flow Variables and the Short-Run Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 4554309, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
- Roley, V Vance, 1979. "A Theory of Federal Debt Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 915-26, December.
- Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.