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Risk Aversion and Determinants of Stock Market Behavior

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  • Pindyck, Robert S

Abstract

A structural model of equity pricing is developed to address two related questions. First, to what extent do unanticipate d changes in such "fundamental" variables as profitability, real in terest rates, inflation, and the variance of returns explain observed stock returns? Second, how risk averse are investors in the aggregat e? The author finds that the pretax profit rate and the variance of r eturns are both significant explainers of the market, and interest ra tes somewhat less so. Estimates of the index of relative risk aversio n put that parameter in the range of 3 to 4. Copyright 1988 by MIT Press.

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  • Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Risk Aversion and Determinants of Stock Market Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 183-190, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:70:y:1988:i:2:p:183-90
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    1. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    2. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," Working papers 353, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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    9. Fischer, Stanley & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Macroeconomics and finance: The role of the stock market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, pages 57-108.
    10. Pindyck, Robert S., 1983. "Risk, inflation, and the stock market," Working papers 1423-83., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
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    14. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1142-1151.
    15. Zvi Bodie & Alex Kane & Robert L. McDonald, 1983. "Why Are Real Interest Rates So High?," NBER Working Papers 1141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hui Guo & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2006. "Uncovering the Risk-Return Relation in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1433-1463, June.
    2. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Xing, Yuhang, 2009. "Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 59-82, January.
    3. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2014. "The impact of the CSI 300 stock index futures: Positive feedback trading and autocorrelation of stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 319-337.
    4. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Flavin, Marjorie & Yamashita, Takashi, 1998. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio over the Life Cycle," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt89x293v9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    6. Yoichiro Fujii & Yutaka Nakamura, 2010. "Equity premium under multiple background risks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 933-939.
    7. Dai, R., 2010. "Essays on pension finance and dynamic asset allocation," Other publications TiSEM 72fdbf1a-5a77-410d-bb4e-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    9. H. Naci Mocan & Stephen C. Billups & Jody Overland, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Differential Human Capital and Criminal Activity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(288), pages 655-681, November.
    10. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 1998. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio Over the Life-Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Hui Guo, 2002. "Stock market returns, volatility, and future output," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 75-86.
    12. Munk, Claus, 2015. "Financial Asset Pricing Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198716457.
    13. Robert B. Barsky & Miles S. Kimball & F. Thomas Juster & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1995. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Survey," NBER Working Papers 5213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, pages 1-59.
    15. Corrado, Charles J. & Jordan, Bradford D. & Miller, Thomas Jr. & Stansfield, John J., 2001. "Repricing and employee stock option valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1059-1082, June.

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