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New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Segura-Ubiergo

    () (Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, N. W., Washington D.C., 20431, USA.)

  • Alejandro Simone

    () (Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, N. W., Washington D.C., 20431, USA.)

  • Sanjeev Gupta

    () (Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, N. W., Washington D.C., 20431, USA.)

  • Qiang Cui

    () (Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, N. W., Washington D.C., 20431, USA.)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal adjustment and real GDP growth in a panel of 26 transition economies during 1992–2001. It finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between fiscal adjustment and real GDP growth that is robust to different model specifications and estimation methods when initial conditions, stabilization policies, and institutions are controlled for. Fiscal adjustment promotes growth in both the short and the long run in countries that have not yet attained macroeconomic stability. However, for countries that have achieved credible stabilization, additional fiscal adjustment is unlikely to yield large benefits in growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Segura-Ubiergo & Alejandro Simone & Sanjeev Gupta & Qiang Cui, 2010. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(1), pages 18-37, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:52:y:2010:i:1:p:18-37
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    Cited by:

    1. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kumo, Kazuhiro, 2016. "Decline and Growth in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis," CEI Working Paper Series 2016-9, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Blanca Moreno-Dodson & Nihal Bayraktar, 2011. "How Public Spending Can Help You Grow : An Empirical Analysis for Developing Countries," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10107, The World Bank.
    3. Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
    4. World Bank, 2011. "Republic of Tajikistan - Country Economic Memorandum : Tajikistan’s Quest for Growth: Stimulating Private Investment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2761, The World Bank.
    5. Brownbridge, Martin & Canagarajah, Sudharshan, 2008. "Fiscal policy for growth and development in Tajikistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4532, The World Bank.
    6. Nihal Bayraktar & Blanca Moreno-Dodson, 2015. "How Can Public Spending Help You Grow? An Empirical Analysis For Developing Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 30-64, January.
    7. Rodríguez-Arana, Alejandro, 2014. "Política fiscal, expectativas y transición dinámica en el modelo simple de crecimiento endógeno," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(18), pages 7-32, primer se.
    8. Bayraktar, Nihal & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca, 2010. "How can public spending help you grow? an empirical analysis for developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5367, The World Bank.
    9. Teresa Ter-Minassian & Richard Hughes & Alejandro Hajdenberg, 2008. "Creating Sustainable Fiscal Space for Infrastructure; The Case of Tanzania," IMF Working Papers 08/256, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Moreno-Dodson, Blanca & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2011. "How Public Spending Can Help You Grow: An Empirical Analysis for Developing Countries," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 48, pages 1-4, January.
    11. Laura Obreja Braşoveanu, 2012. "Correlation Between Government and Economic Growth - Specific Features for 10 Nms," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 2(5), pages 1-14, October.

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