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Searching for Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy

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Abstract

We search for the circumstances in which the response of national saving to fiscal policy contradicts conventional Keynesian predictions, using data from 18 OECD countries. The data suggest that non-Keynesian effects tend to be associated with large and persistent fiscal impulses. Such responses can be traced to changes in taxes and transfers more than to changes in government consumption and are stronger for fiscal contractions than expansions. During large contractions an increase in taxes has no effect on national saving. High or rapidly growing public debt is not a good predictor of non-Keynesian effects. Finally, the composition of the fiscal impulse matters: the non-Keynesian effects of a large fiscal contraction are amplified when this is carried out primarily by raising taxes.

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  • Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 1999. "Searching for Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy," CSEF Working Papers 16, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:16
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    Cited by:

    1. Joerg Bibow, 2004. "Fiscal Consolidation Contrasting Strategies & Lessons from International Experience," Macroeconomics 0402014, EconWPA.
    2. Emanuele, Canegrati, 2008. "Analysis of Intergenerational Inequality: the Role of Public Expenditure and Taxation," MPRA Paper 10926, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lane, Philip R. & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "The importance of composition of fiscal policy: evidence from different exchange rate regimes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2253-2279, September.
    4. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    5. Michael J. Artis & Marco Buti, 2000. "'Close-to-Balance or in Surplus': A Policy-Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 563-591, November.
    6. Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
    7. Alan J. Auerbach, 2002. "Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 109-150.
    8. Vincent Hogan, 2004. "Expansionary Fiscal Contractions? Evidence from Panel Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(4), pages 647-659, December.
    9. Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Emanuele Baldacci & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2002. "Expenditure Composition, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/77, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2006. "Does Culture Affect Economic Outcomes?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 23-48, Spring.
    11. Mikek, Peter, 2008. "Alternative monetary policies and fiscal regime in new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 335-353, December.
    12. Rosaria Rita Canale & Pasquale Foresti & Ugo Marani & Oreste Napolitano, 2008. "On keynesian effects of (apparent) non-keynesian fiscal policies," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-46.
    13. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    14. Maria Silgoner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2004. "The fiscal smile - on the effectiveness and limits of fiscal stabilizers," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    15. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer.
    16. Gabriele Giudice & Alessandro Turrini & Jan in’t Veld, 2007. "Non-Keynesian Fiscal Adjustments? A Close Look at Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in the EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 613-630, November.
    17. repec:rss:jnljfm:v1i1p2 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Martin Feldstein, 2002. "Commentary : Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 151-162.
    19. Vincent (Vincent Peter) Hogan, 2001. "Expansionary fiscal contractions?," Working Papers 200103, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    20. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:22:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Maria Gabriella Briotti, 2005. "Economic reactions to public finance consolidation - a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    22. Bruno, Catherine & Portier, Franck, 2002. "Tax Pot Episodes in OECD Countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 436-461, December.
    23. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2003. "Higher economic growth through macroeconomic policy coordination? The combination of wage policy and monetary policy," Kiel Discussion Papers 399, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; national saving; contractionary fiscal expansions;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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