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Can fiscal consolidations be expansionary in the EU? Ex-post evidence and ex-ante analysis


  • Gabriele Giudice
  • Alessandro Turrini
  • Jan in 't Veld


This paper analyses non-Keynesian effects in fiscal consolidations in the EU. The analysis is carried out both ex-post, i.e. by looking at the emergence of expansionary consolidations in the past and at their characteristics, and ex-ante, i.e. by simulating with the European Commission QUEST model under which conditions public finance consolidation would exhibit non-Keynesian effects in the current EMU context.

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  • Gabriele Giudice & Alessandro Turrini & Jan in 't Veld, 2003. "Can fiscal consolidations be expansionary in the EU? Ex-post evidence and ex-ante analysis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 195, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0195

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    Cited by:

    1. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco & Benedetti, Marina, 2005. "Searching for Non-monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(S1), pages 197-217, October.
    2. Christophe Blot & Jerôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Xavier Timeau, 2015. "Back to fiscal consolidation in Europe and its dual tradeoff : now of later, through spending cuts or tax hikes," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2015-11, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    3. BIKAI, J. Landry, 2015. "Fiscal Rules and Pro-cyclicality of the Fiscal Policy in CEMAC countries," MPRA Paper 78229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gordon Brady, 2015. "Austerity in the European Union: Keynesian Stimulus versus Fiscal Consolidation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 55-65, March.
    5. Hideaki Tanaka, 2005. "Fiscal Rules and Targets and Public Expenditure Management - Enthusiasm in the 1990s and its Aftermath," Finance Working Papers 22705, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    6. Asztalos, Viktor, 2015. "Politikai változások a költségvetési kiigazítások tükrében
      [Political changes in the light of fiscal adjustments]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1196-1210.
    7. Simon Voigts, 2016. "VAT multipliers and pass-through dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-026, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    8. Abdenour, Redouan & Tounsi, Said, 2015. "Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth: Moroccan Case," MPRA Paper 69830, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    9. Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
    10. Maria Gabriella Briotti, 2005. "Economic reactions to public finance consolidation - a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    11. Kapopoulos, Panayotis, 2004. "When can fiscal consolidation be expansionary? Evidence from a small open economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1031-1043, December.
    12. Bikai, Landry, 2010. "Les Effets Non Lineaires Des Deficits Budgetaires Sur L´Activite Economique En Cemac
      [Threshold Effects of Budgetary Policy on Economic Growth in Cemac]
      ," MPRA Paper 24524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Hans Pitlik & Norbert Gruber & Ewald Walterskirchen, 2010. "An International Comparison of Success Factors for Budget Consolidation Strategies," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 15(2), pages 198-210, July.
    14. Eleni Roussou & Norman Cameron, 2005. "The Impact of the European Economic & Monetary Union on the Stability of the Greek Economy," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 85-98.
    15. Hideaki Tanaka, 2005. "Fiscal Rules and Targets and Public Expenditure Management: Enthusiasm in the 1990's and its Aftermath," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 346, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2017. "The Sustainability of Italian Public Debt and Deficit," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 23(1), pages 9-20, February.
    17. Casimir Dadak, 2011. "Political Economy of the Euro Area Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(5), pages 593-604, December.


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