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The economyc policy of fiscal consolidations: The european experience

Author

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  • Andrea Zaghini

    () (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal contractions, permanent improvements in public finances and short-run economic performance. The empirical evidence gathered from the European experience over the last three decades shows clearly that the composition of fiscal adjustments and the length of the period over which they are implemented influence their likelihood of success. Adjustments that concentrate on the expenditure side and unfold over a relatively long time span (three or four years) are more likely to succeed in reducing the public debt/GDP ratio than tax-based or shorter adjustments. Furthermore, macroeconomic consequences are strictly related to the achievement of fiscal success. On average, successful contractions do not trigger economic slowdowns, but unsuccessful adjustments usually do. This evidence is interpreted via the theory known as the expectation view of fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Zaghini, 1999. "The economyc policy of fiscal consolidations: The european experience," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 355, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_355_99
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    Cited by:

    1. Hjelm, Göran & Johansson, Martin W, 2002. "Structural Change in Fiscal Policy and The Permanence of Fiscal Contractions - The Case of Denmark and Ireland," Working Papers 2002:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    2. Martin Larch & Alessandro Turrini, 2011. "Received Wisdom And Beyond: Lessons From Fiscal Consolidation In The Eu," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 217(1), pages 1-18, July.
    3. Hans Pitlik & Norbert Gruber & Ewald Walterskirchen, 2010. "An International Comparison of Success Factors for Budget Consolidation Strategies," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 15(2), pages 198-210, July.
    4. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. "Is private consumption growth higher (lower) during periods of fiscal contractions (expansions)?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 17-39, March.
    5. Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 92(1), pages 43-97.
    6. Paola Veroni, 2001. "Dix ans de politique budgétaire au service de l’euro : l’exemple italien," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2545, Sciences Po.
    7. Paola Veroni, 2001. "Dix ans de politique budgétaire au service de l'euro : l'exemple italien," Post-Print hal-01016956, HAL.
    8. Maria Gabriella Briotti, 2005. "Economic reactions to public finance consolidation - a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    9. Tom Verbeke & M. De Clercq, 2003. "The income-environment relationship: Does a logit model offer an alternative empirical strategy?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/192, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. " Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 423-441, September.
    11. Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese & Ignazio Visco, 1999. "Are model-based inflation forecasts used in monetary policymaking? A case study," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 357, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. António Afonso & Christiane Nickel & Philipp C. Rother, 2006. "Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 402-421, July.
    13. Anton Burger & Martin Zagler, 2007. "Reasons for the U.S. growth period in the nineties: non-keynesian effects, asset wealth and productivity," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp095, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    14. Odile Chagny & Valerie Chauvin & Paola Veroni, 2001. "Aller simple pour l’Union : Croissance comparée en France, Allemagne et Italie sur la décennie quatre-vingt dix," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2544, Sciences Po.
    15. Anton Burger & Martin Zagler, 2008. "US growth and budget consolidation in the 1990s: was there a non-Keynesian effect?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 225-235, July.
    16. Hans Pitlik & Norbert Gruber & Ewald Walterskirchen, 2010. "Success Factors of Budget Consolidation Strategies in International Comparison," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 83(3), pages 233-245, March.
    17. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1769 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Mourao, Paulo & Rodrigues, Carlos, 2007. "Abordagens da despesa pública nos últimos vinte anos
      [Twenty years of Perspectives on Public Expenditures]
      ," MPRA Paper 3416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Andrea Zaghini, 2001. "Fiscal adjustments and economic performing: a comparative study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 613-624.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidation; public deficits; expansionary fiscal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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