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Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations? An Appraisal of the Literature on Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy and a Case Study for Austria

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  • Doris Prammer

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Abstract

This paper reviews the key theoretical and empirical findings of the literature on non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy, or “expansionary fiscal consolidations.” Specifically, it seeks to identify why the empirical evidence is rather ambiguous about the effects that fiscal contractions have on private consumption, investment, national saving and output. The empirical evidence surveyed in this paper is found to provide no clear support for the existence of expansionary fiscal consolidations. The safest conclusion seems to be that fiscal policy has lost some of its ability to stabilize the economy over the recent past. Austria's fiscal consolidation of 1995—1997, identified as expansionary by the European Commission, is found to have relied significantly on one-off measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Doris Prammer, 2004. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations? An Appraisal of the Literature on Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy and a Case Study for Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 34-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2004:i:3:b:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    2. Alan J. Auerbach, 2003. "Fiscal Policy, Past and Present," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 75-138.
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    5. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    6. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    7. Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 1998. "Tales of Fiscal Adjustment," Scholarly Articles 2579822, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    8. Alan J. Auerbach, 2002. "Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 109-150.
    9. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
    11. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:13:y:1998:i:27:p:487-545 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & Luís Martins, 2016. "Monetary Developments and Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: Evidence from the EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 247-265, July.
    2. Neicheva, Maria, 2007. "Non-Keynesian effects of Government Spending: Some implications for the Stability and Growth Pact," MPRA Paper 5277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. European Commission, 2011. "Tax Reforms in EU Member States 2011: tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability," Taxation Papers 28, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    4. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Pavel Soukup, 2012. "Fiscal Discretion in the Czech Republic in 2001-2011: Has It Been Stabilizing?," Research and Policy Notes 2012/01, Czech National Bank.
    5. Rosaria Rita Canale & Pasquale Foresti & Ugo Marani & Oreste Napolitano, 2008. "On keynesian effects of (apparent) non-keynesian fiscal policies," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-46.
    6. Maria Neycheva, 2007. "Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Cumulative Production in the Bulgarian Economy," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 82-101.
    7. Coenen, Günter & Mohr, Matthias & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: Long-run benefits and short-run costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 912-932, September.
    8. Maria Neicheva, 2006. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Government Expenditure on Output in Bulgaria: An HP Filter Approach," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    9. Vlasov, S. & Ponomarenko, A., 2010. "The Role of Budget Policy under the Financial and Economic Crisis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 7, pages 111-133.
    10. György Matolcsy & Dániel Palotai, 2019. "Hungary Is on the Path to Convergence," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 18(3), pages 5-28.
    11. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik, 2010. "Allmähliche Erholung nach schwerer Rezession. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2014," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 83(1), pages 47-59, January.

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