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Unveiling the objectives of central banks: Tales of four Latin American countries

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  • Gómez, Marcos
  • Medina, Juan Pablo
  • Valenzuela, Gonzalo

Abstract

We estimate the stabilization objectives of four Latin American countries that have implemented a flexible inflation targeting regime recently: Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru. In doing so, we develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for these economies and estimate their structural parameters through Bayesian methods. To infer the stabilization objectives in each country, we assume that central banks set monetary policy optimally. Our main results highlight that the central banks in these four countries have a high preference for stabilizing inflation, but do not have the systematic objective of stabilizing the exchange rate. This result is robust to assuming either commitment or discretion in the optimal policy. Also, in contrast to the case of commitment, assuming discretion in the optimal monetary policy increases the preference for interest rate smoothing, making it comparable to a preference for inflation stabilization. Finally, except for the case of Peru, the monetary policy under discretion has a better empirical fit in these countries than the one under commitment.

Suggested Citation

  • Gómez, Marcos & Medina, Juan Pablo & Valenzuela, Gonzalo, 2019. "Unveiling the objectives of central banks: Tales of four Latin American countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 81-100.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:76:y:2019:i:c:p:81-100
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.07.024
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    Cited by:

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    2. Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón, 2021. "Specification errors, nonlinearities, and structural breaks in the Central Bank of Brazil’s reaction function," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1243, March.
    3. Martínez-García, Enrique, 2021. "Get the lowdown: The international side of the fall in the U.S. natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Caputo, Rodrigo & Pedersen, Michael, 2020. "The changing nature of the real exchange rate: The role of central bank preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 445-464.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging economies; Flexible inflation targeting; Central bank preferences; Optimal monetary policy; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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