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Do Re-election Probabilities Influence Public Investment?

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  • Fiva, Jon H.

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

  • Natvik, Gisle James

    (Norges Bank)

Abstract

We identify exogenous variation in incumbent policymakers’ re-election probabilities and explore empirically how this variation affects the incumbents’ investment in physical capital. Our results indicate that a higher re-election probability leads to higher investments, particularly in the purposes preferred more strongly by the incumbents. This aligns with a theoretical framework where political parties disagree about which public goods to produce using labor and predetermined public capital. Key for the consistency between data and theory is to account for complementarity between physical capital and flow variables in government production.

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  • Fiva, Jon H. & Natvik, Gisle James, 2009. "Do Re-election Probabilities Influence Public Investment?," Memorandum 16/2009, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2009_016
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alexandre B. Cunha & Emanuel Ornelas, 2014. "Political Competition and the Limits of Political Compromise," CEP Discussion Papers dp1263, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Yu‐Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Booms, Recessions And Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look At Investment Decisions Under Cyclical Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(3), pages 290-317, July.
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    5. Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2017. "Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 1008, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Jon Fiva & Gisle Natvik, 2013. "Do re-election probabilities influence public investment?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 305-331, October.
    7. Marina Azzimonti, 2015. "The dynamics of public investment under persistent electoral advantage," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 653-678, July.
    8. Revelli, Federico, 2019. "The electoral migration cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 461-482.
    9. Gupta, Sanjeev & Liu, Estelle X. & Mulas-Granados, Carlos, 2016. "Now or later? The political economy of public investment in democracies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 101-114.
    10. Vicente Rios & Miriam Hortas-Rico & Pedro Pascual, 2022. "What shapes the flypaper effect? The role of the political environment in the budget process," Local Government Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 793-820, September.
    11. Masahiro Tanaka, 2015. "Measuring Political Budget Cycles: A Bayesian Semiparametric Assessment," Working Papers 1415, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    12. Jahen F. Rezki, 2022. "Political competition and economic performance: evidence from Indonesia," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 83-114, June.
    13. Olofinbiyi, Tolulope & Mogues, Tewodaj, 2017. "Who Influences Government Spending in Agriculture? The Roles of Public Actors in Subnational Funding Allocation in Nigeria," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 259572, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    14. Bracco, Emanuele & Porcelli, Francesco & Redoano, Michela, 2019. "Political competition, tax salience and accountability. Theory and evidence from Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 138-163.
    15. Lars-Erik Borge & Arnt O. Hopland, 2017. "Schools and public buildings in decay: the role of political fragmentation," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 85-105, February.
    16. Rohan Chinchwadkar, 2020. "Political Business Cycles, Elections and Entrepreneurial Finance: A Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(4), pages 941-954, December.
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    18. Marina Azzimonti, 2015. "The dynamics of public investment under persistent electoral advantage," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 653-678, July.
    19. Rezki, Jahen Fachrul, 2018. "Political Competition and Local Government Performance: Evidence from Indonesia," SocArXiv nekps, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Economics; Strategic Capital Accumulation; Identifying Popularity Shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H40 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - General
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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