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Popularity, polarization, and political budget cycles

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  • Marek Hanusch
  • Daniel Magleby

Abstract

A vast literature has established that governments may abuse policy instruments in order to enhance their popularity and thus their probability of reelection, resulting in political budget cycles. Yet do popular governments have the same incentives to boost their popularity through pre-electoral expansions as unpopular governments? The existing empirical evidence, which to this date is entirely country-specific, produces mixed messages. Some studies find a simple linear relationship between popularity and the magnitude of political budget cycles and some find a non-linear relationship, peaking at the point where the race for office is tight. This article presents a simple theoretical model, which suggests that party polarization may be the key mediator reconciling these alternative findings. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Marek Hanusch & Daniel Magleby, 2014. "Popularity, polarization, and political budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 457-467, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:159:y:2014:i:3:p:457-467
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-012-0055-5
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    3. Masahiro Tanaka, 2015. "Measuring Political Budget Cycles: A Bayesian Semiparametric Assessment," Working Papers 1415, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    4. Bennett, Daniel L. & Long, Jason T., 2019. "Is it the economic policy, stupid? Economic policy, political parties & the gubernatorial incumbent advantage," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 118-137.
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    6. Touria Jaaidane & Sophie Larribeau, 2021. "When Cooperation tames the Leviathan and Partisan-distorted Grant Allocation feeds it: Evidence from French Municipalities," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2021-04, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    7. George Petrakos & Konstantinos Rontos & Luca Salvati & Chara Vavoura & Ioannis Vavouras, 2022. "Toward a political budget cycle? Unveiling long-term latent paths in Greece," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3379-3394, October.

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