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Political Uncertainty, Public Expenditure and Growth

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  • Julia Darby
  • Chol-Won Li
  • Anton Muscatelli

Abstract

We focus on the link between political instability due to uncertain electoral outcomes and economic growth, through the impact on a government's decisions on how to allocate government expenditure between public consumption and investment. Using an endogenous growth model with partisan electoral effects, we demonstrate that political uncertainty will generate a steady-state equilibrium growth rate which is inefficient and too low. We also use a newly-constructed political data set to estimate panel regressions for several OECD economies over a period 1960-95. Our empirical evidence on the effects of political variables on tax and spending decisions supports our theoretical results.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Darby & Chol-Won Li & Anton Muscatelli, 2000. "Political Uncertainty, Public Expenditure and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 310, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_310
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2001. "Theory and Evidence on the Political Economy of Growth," Working Papers 33, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2001.
    2. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2001. "Political Data for Applied Political Economy Research," Working Papers 43, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2001.
    3. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2003. "Political Instability, Uncertainty and Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-54, February.

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