External shock and diversified landscape of China’s product export

It is of great practical significance to the high-quality development of its product export trade whether a country’s product exports can be effectively balanced through trade destruction and trade deflection under external shock and realize a diversified landscape. Based on the perspective of product diversification, this paper takes the trade policy uncertainty triggered by the U.S. imposing tariffs on China’s export products as an example, and makes an empirical study on the impact of China’s export products trade and how to diversify its layout. The conclusion shows that the increase of uncertainty of external tariff policies has a trade destruction effect on China’s exports to the U.S., which is mainly caused by the quantity margin, while the price margin and extensive margin have no destructive effect. But at the same time, the uncertainty of external tariff policies leads to the trade deflection effect of China’s product exports. That is, the export to other countries increases, which is mainly formed by the joint action of positive quantity margin, extensive margin, and price margin. Secondly, the trade deflection effect is beneficial to the diversified trade pattern of China’s product export, but there are significant differences in different export destinations, export regions, and product types. The above conclusion is robust. In addition, this paper discusses the mechanism of government R&D subsidies, the markup rate of export products and the advantage of large domestic market size, and the superposition effect of China’s internal policies uncertainty, external financial policy uncertainty and external tariff policies uncertainty.