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Survival of the Best Fit: Competition from Low Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of U.S. Manufacturing Plants

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  • Andrew B Bernard
  • J. Bradford Jensen
  • Peter K Schott

Abstract

We examine the relationship between import competition from low wage countries and the reallocation of US manufacturing from 1977 to 1997. Both employment and output growth are slower for plants that face higher levels of low wage import competition in their industry. As a result, US manufacturing is reallocated over time towards industries that are more capital and skill intensive. Differential growth is driven by a combination of increased plant failure rates and slower growth of surviving plants. Within industries, low wage import competition has the strongest effects on the least capital and skill intensive plants. Surviving plants that switch industries move into more capital and skill intensive sectors when they face low wage competition.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew B Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Peter K Schott, 2002. "Survival of the Best Fit: Competition from Low Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 02-22, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:02-22
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    Cited by:

    1. Van Biesebroeck, Johannes, 2005. "Exporting raises productivity in sub-Saharan African manufacturing firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 373-391, December.
    2. Swenson, Deborah L., 2005. "Overseas assembly and country sourcing choices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 107-130, May.
    3. Bruce A. Blonigen & Lindsay Oldenski & Nicholas Sly, 2011. "Separating the Opposing Effects of Bilateral Tax Treaties," NBER Working Papers 17480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lileeva, Alla, 2008. "Dynamique de la libéralisation des échanges et de la productivité : un éclairage canadien," Série de documents de recherche sur l'analyse économique (AE) 2008051f, Statistics Canada, Direction des études analytiques.
    5. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2003. "Product Choice and Product Switching," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm381, Yale School of Management.
    6. Lileeva, Alla, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Productivity Dynamics: Evidence from Canada," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2008051e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    7. Chin Hee Hahn & Yong-Seok Choi, 2010. "China’s Rise and Production and Investment Growth in Korean Manufacturing Industries: Channels and the Effects," Chapters, in: Takatoshi Ito & Chin Hee Hahn (ed.), The Rise of China and Structural Changes in Korea and Asia, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Myeongwan Kim, 2020. "The Price Effect of Trade: Evidence of the China Shock and Canadian Consumer Prices," CSLS Research Reports 2020-02, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    9. Gu, Wulong Sawchuk, Gary, 2006. "How Are Canadian Regions Adjusting to a Larger and More Integrated North American Market?," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2006039e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    10. Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis & Peter K. Schott, 2002. "U.S. Imports, Exports, and Tariff Data, 1989-2001," NBER Working Papers 9387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Nan Nan Lundin, 2004. "Has Import Disciplined Swedish Manufacturing Firms in the 1990s?," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 109-133, June.
    12. J. Bradford Jensen & Lori G. Kletzer, 2005. "Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Outsourcing," Working Paper Series WP05-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    13. Stefano Federico, 2014. "Industry Dynamics and Competition from Low-Wage Countries: Evidence on Italy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 389-410, June.
    14. David Greenaway & Joakim Gullstrand & Richard Kneller, 2009. "Live or Let Die? Alternative Routes to Industry Exit," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 317-337, July.
    15. Mine Zeynep Senses, 2006. "The Effects of Outsourcing on the Elasticity of Labor Demand," Working Papers 06-07, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    16. Alejandro Cuñat & Marco Maffezzoli, "undated". "Trade Integration and Growth," Working Papers 220, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    17. Gu, Wulong Sawchuk, Gary, 2006. "Comment les régions du Canada s'adaptent-elles à un marché nord-américain plus grand et plus intégré?," Série de documents de recherche sur l'analyse économique (AE) 2006039f, Statistics Canada, Direction des études analytiques.
    18. Hitoshi Sasaki, 2007. "Import Competition and Manufacturing Employment in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-25, Bank of Japan.

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    Keywords

    CES; economic; research; micro; data; microdata; chief; economist;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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