IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/elsaab/151-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Perverse Effects of Job-security Provisions on Job Security in Italy: Results from a Regression Discontinuity Design

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Hijzen

    (OECD)

  • Leopoldo Mondauto

    (Italia Lavoro)

  • Stefano Scarpetta

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of employment protection (EP) on the composition of the workforce and worker turnover using a unique firm-level dataset for Italy. The impact of employment protection is analysed by means of a regression discontinuity design (RDD) that exploits the variation in EP provisions across firms below and above a size threshold. Using our RDD approach, we show that EP increases worker reallocation, suggesting that EP tends to reduce rather to increase worker security on average. We further show that this can be entirely explained by the fact that firms facing more stringent EP make a greater use of workers on temporary contracts. Our preferred estimates suggest that the discontinuity in EP increases the incidence of temporary work by 2-2.5 percentage points around the threshold. Moreover, further analysis suggests that the effect of employment protection persists among larger firms well beyond the threshold and may account for about 20% of the overall incidence of temporary work. There is also evidence that EP reduces labour productivity and this effect is to an important extent due to the impact of EP on worker reallocation and the incidence of temporary work. Cet article analyse l'impact de la protection de l'emploi (PE) sur la composition de la main-d’oeuvre et la rotation des travailleurs en utilisant un ensemble unique de données au niveau des entreprises pour l'Italie. L'impact de la protection de l'emploi est analysé au moyen d’une méthode de régression par discontinuité (RD) qui exploite la variation des dispositions de la PE entre les entreprises de taille inférieure ou supérieure à un certain seuil. À l’aide de notre approche RD, nous montrons que la PE accroît la réallocation des travailleurs, indiquant que la PE a tendance, en moyenne, à réduire plutôt qu’à accroître la sécurité de l’emploi des travailleurs. Nous montrons de plus que cela peut être entièrement expliqué par le fait que les entreprises confrontées à une PE plus stricte recourent plus largement à des travailleurs sous contrats temporaires. Nos estimations privilégiées suggèrent que la discontinuité de la PE augmente l'incidence du travail temporaire de 2 à 2,5 points de pourcentage autour de la valeur seuil. En outre, une analyse plus détaillée suggère que l'effet de la protection de l'emploi persiste parmi les grandes entreprises bien au-delà du seuil et peut représenter environ 20% de l'incidence globale du travail temporaire. Il semble également que la PE réduit la productivité du travail et que cet effet est dans une large mesure dû à l'impact de la PE sur la réallocation des travailleurs et l'incidence du travail temporaire.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Hijzen & Leopoldo Mondauto & Stefano Scarpetta, 2013. "The Perverse Effects of Job-security Provisions on Job Security in Italy: Results from a Regression Discontinuity Design," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 151, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaab:151-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5k40hthb969w-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/5k40hthb969w-en
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/5k40hthb969w-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Gal & Alexander Hijzen & Zoltan Wolf, 2012. "The Role of Institutions and Firm Heterogeneity for Labour Market Adjustment: Cross-Country Firm-Level Evidence," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 134, OECD Publishing.
    2. Adriana Kugler & Juan F. Jimeno & Virginia Hernanz, "undated". "Employment Consequences of Restrictive Permanent Contracts: Evidence from Spanish Labor Market Reforms," Working Papers 2003-14, FEDEA.
    3. Raffaello Bronzini & Eleonora Iachini, 2014. "Are Incentives for R&D Effective? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 100-134, November.
    4. Haltiwanger, John C. & Scarpetta, Stefano & Schweiger, Helena, 2006. "Assessing Job Flows across Countries: The Role of Industry, Firm Size and Regulations," IZA Discussion Papers 2450, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    6. Boeri, Tito & Jimeno, Juan F., 2005. "The effects of employment protection: Learning from variable enforcement," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2057-2077, November.
    7. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    9. Micco, Alejandro & Pagés, Carmen, 2006. "The Economic Effects of Employment Protection: Evidence from International Industry-Level Data," IZA Discussion Papers 2433, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Lalive, Rafael & Wuellrich, Jean-Philippe & Zweimüller, Josef, 2009. "Do Financial Incentives for Firms Promote Employment of Disabled Workers? A Regression Discontinuity Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7373, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Jens Ludwig & Douglas L. Miller, 2007. "Does Head Start Improve Children's Life Chances? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 159-208.
    12. Federico Cingano & Marco Leonardi & Julián Messina & Giovanni Pica, 2010. "The effects of employment protection legislation and financial market imperfections on investment: evidence from a firm-level panel of EU countries [Technology and labour regulations]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25(61), pages 117-163.
    13. Kugler, Adriana & Pica, Giovanni, 2008. "Effects of employment protection on worker and job flows: Evidence from the 1990 Italian reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 78-95, February.
    14. Tito Boeri & Pietro Garibaldi, 2007. "Two Tier Reforms of Employment Protection: a Honeymoon Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(521), pages 357-385, June.
    15. Skedinger, Per, 2011. "Employment Consequences of Employment Protection Legislation," Working Paper Series 865, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    16. Pietro Garibaldi & Lia Pacelli & Andrea Borgarello, 2004. "Employment Protection Legislation and the Size of Firms," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 63(1), pages 33-68, April.
    17. Heckman, James J. & Pages, Carmen (ed.), 2004. "Law and Employment," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226322827, December.
    18. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2009. "Unemployment, institutions, and reform complementarities: re-assessing the aggregate evidence for OECD countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 40-59, Spring.
    19. Ichino, Andrea & Polo, Michele & Rettore, Enrico, 2003. "Are judges biased by labor market conditions?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 913-944, October.
    20. Samuel Bentolila & Juan Jose Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno, 2008. "Two-tier Employment Protection Reforms: The Spanish Experience," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(4), pages 49-56, December.
    21. Joshua Angrist & Miikka Rokkanen, 2012. "Wanna Get Away? RD Identification Away from the Cutoff," NBER Working Papers 18662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Schivardi, Fabiano & Torrini, Roberto, 2008. "Identifying the effects of firing restrictions through size-contingent differences in regulation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 482-511, June.
    23. John Martin & Stefano Scarpetta, 2012. "Setting It Right: Employment Protection, Labour Reallocation and Productivity," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 89-116, June.
    24. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    25. Justin McCrary, 2007. "Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test," NBER Technical Working Papers 0334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Patrick Kline, 2011. "Oaxaca-Blinder as a Reweighting Estimator," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 532-537, May.
    27. Veronica Grembi & Tommaso Nannicini & Ugo Troiano, 2011. "Policy Responses to Fiscal Restraints: A Difference-in-Discontinuities Design," Working Papers 397, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    28. Giuseppe Fiori & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2007. "Employment Outcomes and the Interaction Between Product and Labor Market Deregulation: Are They Substitutes or Complements?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 663, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 08 Aug 2008.
    29. Dean Baker & Andrew Glyn & David Howell & John Schmitt, 2002. "Labor Market Institutions and Unemployment: A Critical Assessment of the Cross-Country Evidence," SCEPA working paper series. 2002-17, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    30. Jinyong Hahn & Petra Todd & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 1999. "Evaluating the Effect of an Antidiscrimination Law Using a Regression-Discontinuity Design," NBER Working Papers 7131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    32. Oecd, 2009. "Employment and Social Protection," OECD Journal on Development, OECD Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 7-54.
    33. Adriana D. Kugler, 2004. "The Effect of Job Security Regulations on Labor Market Flexibility. Evidence from the Colombian Labor Market Reform," NBER Chapters, in: Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean, pages 183-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppina Gianfreda & Giovanna Vallanti, 2017. "Informality and productivity: do firms escape EPL through shadow employment? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Working Papers 2017-01, Universita' di Cassino, Dipartimento di Economia e Giurisprudenza.
    2. Stefano Scarpetta, 2014. "Employment protection," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-12, May.
    3. Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro, 2019. "A tale of comprehensive labor market reforms: Evidence from the Italian jobs act," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 33-48.
    4. Álvaro A. Novo & Mário Centeno, 2013. "Segmenting wages," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Damas de Matos, Ana & Parent, Daniel, 2016. "Which firms create fixed-term employment? Evidence from Portugal," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 348-362.
    6. Pierre Cahuc & Olivier Charlot & Franck Malherbet, 2016. "Explaining The Spread Of Temporary Jobs And Its Impact On Labor Turnover," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 533-572, May.
    7. Hijzen, Alexander & Mondauto, Leopoldo & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2017. "The impact of employment protection on temporary employment: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 64-76.
    8. repec:idb:brikps:7203 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Simone Lenzu & Francesco Manaresi, 2019. "Sources and implications of resource misallocation: new evidence from firm-level marginal products and user costs," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 485, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Federico Cingano & Marco Leonardi & Julián Messina & Giovanni Pica, 2016. "Employment Protection Legislation, Capital Investment and Access to Credit: Evidence from Italy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(595), pages 1798-1822, September.
    11. Peter Gal & Alexander Hijzen & Zoltan Wolf, 2012. "The Role of Institutions and Firm Heterogeneity for Labour Market Adjustment: Cross-Country Firm-Level Evidence," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 134, OECD Publishing.
    12. Bofinger, Peter & Buch, Claudia M. & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201314.
    13. Giuseppina Gianfreda & Giovanna Vallanti, 2017. "Informality and productivity: do firms escape EPL through shadow employment? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Working Papers 2017-01, Universita' di Cassino, Dipartimento di Economia e Giurisprudenza.
    14. Jaramillo, Miguel, 2019. "The unprotecting effects of employment protection: the impact of the 2001 labor reform in Peru," GLO Discussion Paper Series 299, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    15. Bacci, Silvia & Bartolucci, Francesco & Pigini, Claudia & Signorelli, Marcello, 2014. "A finite mixture latent trajectory model for hirings and separations in the labor market," MPRA Paper 59730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Bolli, Thomas & Kemper, Johanna, 2015. "Evaluating the Impact of Employment Protection on Firm-Provided Training in an RDD Framework," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112895, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Jaramillo, Miguel, 2018. "Los efectos desprotectores de la protección del empleo: El impacto de la reforma del contrato laboral de 2001," Revista Moneda, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 173, pages 31-36.
    18. Elena Bastianelli & Raffaele Guetto & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "The impact of labour market deregulation reforms on fertility in Europe," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2022_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    19. Verónica Alaimo & Mariano Bosch & David S. Kaplan & Carmen Pagés & Laura Ripani, 2015. "Jobs for Growth," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 90977, February.
    20. Patrizia Ordine & Giuseppe Rose, 2016. "Two-tier labor market reform and entry wage of protected workers: evidence from Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 339-362, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hijzen, Alexander & Mondauto, Leopoldo & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2017. "The impact of employment protection on temporary employment: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 64-76.
    2. John Martin & Stefano Scarpetta, 2012. "Setting It Right: Employment Protection, Labour Reallocation and Productivity," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 89-116, June.
    3. Bassanini, Andrea & Garnero, Andrea, 2013. "Dismissal protection and worker flows in OECD countries: Evidence from cross-country/cross-industry data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 25-41.
    4. Parsons, Donald O., 2011. "Mandated Severance Pay and Firing Cost Distortions: A Critical Review of the Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 5776, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Per Skedinger, 2010. "Employment Protection Legislation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13686.
    6. Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro, 2019. "A tale of comprehensive labor market reforms: Evidence from the Italian jobs act," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 33-48.
    7. Bendicta Marzinotto & Ladislav Wintr, 2019. "Employment protection and firm-level job reallocation: Adjusting for coverage," BCL working papers 131, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    8. Holzmann, Robert & Pouget, Yann & Vodopivec, Milan & Weber, Michael, 2011. "Severance Pay Programs around the World: History, Rationale, Status, and Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 5731, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Andrea Bassanini & Luca Nunziata & Danielle Venn, 2009. "Job protection legislation and productivity growth in OECD countries [Appropriate growth policy: a unifying framework]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24(58), pages 349-402.
    10. Marco Leonardi & Giovanni Pica, 2013. "Who Pays for it? The Heterogeneous Wage Effects of Employment Protection Legislation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(12), pages 1236-1278, December.
    11. Betcherman, Gordon, 2014. "Labor market regulations : what do we know about their impacts in developing countries ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6819, The World Bank.
    12. Bratti, Massimiliano & Conti, Maurizio & Sulis, Giovanni, 2021. "Employment protection and firm-provided training in dual labour markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Anders Bornhäll & Sven-Olov Daunfeldt & Niklas Rudholm, 2017. "Employment protection legislation and firm growth: evidence from a natural experiment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 169-185.
    14. Cristina Fernández & Roberta García & Paloma Lopez-Garcia & Benedicta Marzinotto & Roberta Serafini & Juuso Vanhala & Ladislav Wintr, 2017. "Firm growth in Europe: An overview based on the COMPNET labour module," BCL working papers 107, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    15. Djankov, Simeon & Ramalho, Rita, 2009. "Employment laws in developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 3-13, March.
    16. Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro & Moen, Espen R., 2017. "Inside severance pay," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 211-225.
    17. Federico Cingano & Marco Leonardi & Julián Messina & Giovanni Pica, 2016. "Employment Protection Legislation, Capital Investment and Access to Credit: Evidence from Italy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(595), pages 1798-1822, September.
    18. Piton Céline & Rycx François, 2019. "Unemployment Impact of Product and Labor Market Regulation: Evidence from European Countries," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, June.
    19. Giovanna Vallanti & Giuseppina Gianfreda, 2021. "Informality, regulation and productivity: do small firms escape EPL through shadow employment?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1383-1412, October.
    20. Danielle Venn, 2009. "Legislation, Collective Bargaining and Enforcement: Updating the OECD Employment Protection Indicators," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 89, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment protection; labour market duality; temporary work contract; worker reallocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J42 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:elsaab:151-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eloecfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eloecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.