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A Fragile Pillar: Statutory Pensions and the Risk of Old-age Poverty in Germany

  • Stefan Krenz
  • Wolfgang Nagl

The statutory pension system is still the most important income source among seniorcitizens in Germany. Due to increasing disruptions in employment biographies since the1970s and due to the mass unemployment in Eastern Germany since the 1990s, there isa growing fear of post-retirement poverty in Germany. We develop a micro-simulationmodel to compare the distribution of statutory pension incomes for new retirees in 2020with those in 2004. The pension income distribution is calculated for Eastern andWestern Germany separately, for men and women, and for different skill levels.Throughout Germany, we find a growing post-retirement poverty, especially for lowskilledworkers. Eastern Germany will lose its current advantage in terms of highpensions and low inequality.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-Ifo_Working_Papers/wp-ifo-2005-2010/IfoWorkingPaper-76.pdf
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Paper provided by Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Paper No. 76.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_76
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  1. Bonin, Holger, 2009. "15 years of pension reform in Germany: old successes and new threats," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-035, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Bonin, Holger, 2009. "15 Years of Pension Reform in Germany: Old Successes and New Threats," IZA Policy Papers 11, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Michael Berlemann & Marcel Thum, 2005. "Blooming landscapes in East Germany?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(4), pages 16-22, December.
  4. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Reil-Held, Anette & Wilke, Christina, 2008. "Zum künftigen Stellenwert der ersten Säule im Gesamtsystem der Alterssicherung," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-45, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  5. Friedrich Breyer & Stefan Hupfeld, 2009. "Fairness of Public Pensions and Old-Age Poverty," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 65(3), pages 358-380, September.
  6. Stefan Krenz & Wolfgang Nagl & Joachim Ragnitz, 2009. "Is There a Growing Risk of Old-Age Poverty in East Germany?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 60(Supplemen), pages 35-54.
  7. Holger Bonin, 2009. "15 Years of Pension Reform in Germany: Old Successes and New Threats," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 34(4), pages 548-560, October.
  8. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Reil-Held, Anette & Wilke, Christina Benita, 2008. "Zum künftigen Stellenwert der ersten Säule im Gesamtsystem der Alterssicherung," Papers 08-45, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
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