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Lohnrisiko und Altersarmut im Sozialstaat

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  • Wolfgang Nagl

Abstract

Löhne und gesetzliche Rentenansprüche sind über das Sozialversicherungssystem direkt miteinander verbunden. In dieser Dissertationsschrift werden zunächst Lohnrisiken analysiert, um dann das Altersarmutsrisiko in Deutschland aufzuzeigen. Nach einer Einführung werden in Kapitel 2 die Einflüsse des Einkommens- und Arbeitslosigkeitsrisikos auf die individuellen Löhne untersucht. Aufbauend auf ein Portfoliomodell am Arbeitsmarkt, werden die Effekte für Männer und Frauen in Ostdeutschland und Westdeutschland empirisch untersucht. Bei simultaner Betrachtung beider Risiken zeigen sich positive Risikokompensationen, aber auch ein negativer Interaktionseffekt. Der marginale Effekt des Einkommensrisikos auf den Lohn ist positiv. Der marginale Effekt des Arbeitslosigkeitsrisikos hingegen ist negativ. Kapitel 3 beschäftigt sich mit der Wirkung der Absenkung der Arbeitslosenunterstützung im Zuge der Hartz-Reformen auf die individuellen Löhne. Für Männer und Frauen in Ostdeutschland und Westdeutschland findet sich ein lohndämpfender Effekt. In Westdeutschland zeigt sich zudem ein Anstieg des Effektes mit dem Qualifikationsniveau. In Kapitel 4 wird das Altersarmutsrisiko in Deutschland untersucht. In einem Mikrosimulationsmodell werden die gesetzlichen Rentenansprüche der Kohorte 1939-1941 mit denen der Kohorte 1955-1957 verglichen. Die jüngere Kohorte weist in beiden Landesteilen ein höheres Altersarmutsrisiko auf. Der Anstieg geschieht schneller in Ostdeutschland, allerdings liegt dort auch zukünftig das Niveau noch unter dem in Westdeutschland. Das Altersarmutsrisiko sinkt mit dem Qualifikationsniveau. Durch die gegenseitige Absicherung weisen Ehepaare und Witwen ein geringeres Altersarmutsrisiko auf. Den Abschluss der Arbeit bildet ein zusammenfassendes Fazit.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nagl, 2014. "Lohnrisiko und Altersarmut im Sozialstaat," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 54.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nagl & Joachim Ragnitz & Lars Vandrei, 2014. "Die Rente für besonders langjährig Versicherte," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(02), pages 33-36, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Löhne; Einkommensrisiko; Arbeitslosigkeitsrisiko; Hartz-Reformen; Arbeitslosenunterstützung; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung; Altersarmutsrisiko; Mikrosimulationsmodell; Qualifikationsniveau;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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