IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocadp/22-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality

Author

Listed:
  • Joel Wagner
  • Tudor Schlanger
  • Yang Zhang

Abstract

We introduce bounded rationality, along the lines of Gabaix (2020), in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada’s adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to provide a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic impact of flexible inflation targeting and some alternative m2netary policy regimes. These alternative monetary policy regimes are average-inflation targeting, price-level targeting and nominal gross domestic product level targeting. We consider these regimes’ performance with and without an effective lower bound constraint. Our results suggest that the performance of history-dependent frameworks is sensitive to departures from rational expectations. The benefits of adopting history-dependent frameworks over flexible inflation targeting gradually diminish with a greater degree of bounded rationality. This finding is in line with laboratory experiments that show flexible inflation targeting remains a robust framework to stabilize macroeconomic fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Joel Wagner & Tudor Schlanger & Yang Zhang, 2022. "A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality," Discussion Papers 2022-4, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:22-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/02/staff-discussion-paper-2022-4/
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/sdp2022-4.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2019. "Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 427-432, May.
    3. Budianto, Flora & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2023. "Average inflation targeting and the interest rate lower bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St-Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 1029-1055, August.
    5. Woodford, Michael & Xie, Yinxi, 2022. "Fiscal and monetary stabilization policy at the zero lower bound: Consequences of limited foresight," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 18-35.
    6. Olivier Gervais & Marc-André Gosselin, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model," Technical Reports 102, Bank of Canada.
    7. Paul Corrigan & Hélène Desgagnés & José Dorich & Vadym Lepetyuk & Wataru Miyamoto & Yang Zhang, 2021. "ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis," Technical Reports 119, Bank of Canada.
    8. José Dorich & Rhys R. Mendes & Yang Zhang, 2021. "The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations," Discussion Papers 2021-13, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cars Hommes & Mario He & Sebastian Poledna & Melissa Siqueira & Yang Zhang, 2022. "CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model," Staff Working Papers 22-51, Bank of Canada.
    2. Paul Beaudry & Thomas J. Carter & Amartya Lahiri, 2022. "Looking Through Supply Shocks versus Controlling Inflation Expectations: Understanding the Central Bank Dilemma," Staff Working Papers 22-41, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wagner, Joel & Schlanger, Tudor & Zhang, Yang, 2023. "A horse race of alternative monetary policy regimes under bounded rationality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Gali & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2021. "Should the ECB Adjust Its Strategy in the Face of a Lower r*?," Working Papers 22-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Andrade, Philippe & Galí, Jordi & Le Bihan, Hervé & Matheron, Julien, 2021. "Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r★?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Edouard Djeutem & Mario He & Abeer Reza & Yang Zhang, 2022. "Household Heterogeneity and the Performance of Monetary Policy Frameworks," Staff Working Papers 22-12, Bank of Canada.
    5. Donald Coletti, 2023. "A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models," Discussion Papers 2023-23, Bank of Canada.
    6. Cars Hommes & Mario He & Sebastian Poledna & Melissa Siqueira & Yang Zhang, 2022. "CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model," Staff Working Papers 22-51, Bank of Canada.
    7. Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What's Up with the Phillips Curve?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 301-373.
    8. Lepetyuk, Vadym & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2020. "When the U.S. catches a cold, Canada sneezes: A lower-bound tale told by deep learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Vivian Chu & Yang Zhang, 2022. "Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-13, Bank of Canada.
    11. Jia, Chengcheng & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2023. "Average inflation targeting: Time inconsistency and ambiguous communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 69-86.
    12. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    13. Stefano Gnocchi & Fanny McKellips & Rodrigo Sekkel & Laure Simon & Yinxi Xie & Yang Zhang, 2024. "The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada," Discussion Papers 2024-07, Bank of Canada.
    14. Martina Cecioni & Adriana Grasso & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2021. "Revisiting monetary policy objectives and strategies: international experience and challenges from the ELB," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 660, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Frantisek Masek & Jan Zemlicka, 2024. "Average Inflation Targeting: How far to look into the past and the future?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 5/2024, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    16. Ambrocio, Gene & Ferrero, Andrea & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2022. "What Should the Inflation Target Be? Views from 600 Economists," CEPR Discussion Papers 17289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Frantisek Masek & Jan Zemlicka, 2024. "Average Inflation Targeting: How far to look into the past and the future?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 5/2024, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    18. Dobrew, Michael & Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Schwemmer, Alexander, 2023. "Monetary policy rules under bounded rationality," Discussion Papers 18/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Zheng Liu & Jianjun Miao & Dongling Su, 2022. "Fiscal Stimulus Under Average Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 2022-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Marc-André Gosselin & Temel Taskin, 2023. "What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?," Discussion Papers 2023-13, Bank of Canada.
    21. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021. "Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank research; Economic models; Monetary policy framework; Monetary policy transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:22-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.