IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rba/rbardp/rdp2025-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Boundedly Rational Expectations and the Optimality of Flexible Average Inflation Targeting

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony Brassil

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Christopher G Gibbs

    (University of Sydney)

  • Callum Ryan

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

Expectations play a central role in the transmission of monetary policy, but how people form expectations is widely debated. We revisit optimal monetary policy design in a model with behavioural expectations that nest rational and adaptive learning beliefs as special cases, and approximates several alternative expectations theories, such as myopic or level- k expectations. Optimal policy is a weighted average inflation target plus adjustments for belief persistence and constraints faced by the central bank (information frictions and the zero lower bound). Optimal policy is well-approximated in all cases by flexible average inflation targeting, where we make explicit what average and flexible mean.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Brassil & Christopher G Gibbs & Callum Ryan, 2025. "Boundedly Rational Expectations and the Optimality of Flexible Average Inflation Targeting," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2025-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2025-02
    DOI: 10.47688/rdp2025-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2025/pdf/rdp2025-02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.47688/rdp2025-02?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Molnár, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy when agents are learning," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 39-62.
    2. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
    3. Budianto, Flora & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2023. "Average inflation targeting and the interest rate lower bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Giannini, Bianca, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 373-387.
    5. Dupraz, Stéphane & Le Bihan, Hervé & Matheron, Julien, 2024. "Make-up strategies with finite planning horizons but infinitely forward-looking asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Cole, Stephen J. & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2023. "The effect of central bank credibility on forward guidance in an estimated New Keynesian model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 532-570, March.
    7. Eo, Yunjong & Lie, Denny, 2020. "Average inflation targeting and interest-rate smoothing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    8. Xavier Gabaix, 2020. "A Behavioral New Keynesian Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2271-2327, August.
    9. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goy, Gavin & Hommes, Cars & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2022. "Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1240-1274.
    2. Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco, 2019. "Beliefs formation and the puzzle of forward guidance power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 20-32.
    3. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Mathieu Pedemonte & Hiroshi Toma & Esteban Verdugo, 2023. "Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience," Working Papers 23-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Lustenhouwer, Joep & Hagenhoff, Tim, 2019. "The Rationality Bias," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203553, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Masciandaro, Donato, 2022. "Independence, conservatism, and beyond: Monetary policy, central bank governance and central banker preferences (1981–2021)," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Elton Beqiraj & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro & Carolina Serpieri, 2020. "Bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations: Euler versus anticipated-utility approach," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 249-273, August.
    8. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Diluiso, Francesca, 2024. "Climate actions, market beliefs, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 176-208.
    9. Masciandaro, Donato & Russo, Riccardo, 2024. "Monetary and macroprudential policies: How to Be green? A political-economy approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Masek, Frantisek & Zemlicka, Jan, 2024. "Average inflation targeting: how far to look into the past and the future?," Working Paper Series 2955, European Central Bank.
    11. Colin C. Caines & Fabian Winkler, 2018. "Asset Price Learning and Optimal Monetary Policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1236, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Jump, Robert Calvert & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Behavioural New Keynesian models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-77.
    13. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "The Rationality Bias," BERG Working Paper Series 144, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    14. Samuele Ridolfi, 2024. "Behavioral Macroeconomics: A Systematic Review for Policy Insights," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 8(S2), pages 35-42, December.
    15. Beqiraj Elton & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Serpieri Carolina, 2017. "Bounded-rationality and heterogeneous agents: Long or short forecasters?," wp.comunite 00132, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    16. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "Robust Optimal Policies in a Behavioural New Keynesian Model," JRC Research Reports JRC111603, Joint Research Centre.
    17. Donato Masciandaro, 2021. "Central Bank Governance in Monetary Policy Economics (1981-2020)," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21153, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    18. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2025. "Robust optimal monetary policies in behavioral New Keynesian DSGE models," Working Papers in Public Economics 261, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    19. Eo, Yunjong & McClung, Nigel, 2021. "Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2021, Bank of Finland.
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Yamin Ahmad & James Murray, 2023. "Implications for determinacy with average inflation targeting," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 510-517.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal policy; behavioural macroeconomics; average inflation targeting; zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2025-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paula Drew (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.