IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocadp/21-13.html

The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations

Author

Listed:
  • José Dorich
  • Rhys R. Mendes
  • Yang Zhang

Abstract

Since 1991, the Bank of Canada has had an inflation-targeting (IT) framework established by a joint agreement between the Bank and the Government of Canada. The framework is reviewed every five years as part of the process for renewing the inflation-control agreement. This discussion paper summarizes some interim results from Bank staff analysis done for the August 2020 workshop, “Towards the 2021 Renewal of the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Framework.” The Bank will publish updated analysis later in 2021. The core of the current framework—the 2 percent inflation target—has remained unchanged since 1995. This fact reflects its success. Well-anchored inflation expectations contribute to macroeconomic stability while leaving monetary policy with greater flexibility. The 2021 renewal highlights two key challenges facing Canadian monetary policy: (1) the low neutral rate of interest; and (2) the low interest rates associated with a low neutral rate that may encourage excessive risk-taking and debt accumulation To address these challenges, Bank staff are running a “horse race” of alternative monetary policy frameworks (i.e., alternatives to the 2 percent IT framework). Their work evaluates these alternatives using a broad range of qualitative and quantitative criteria and focuses on the macroeconomic performance of the alternative frameworks. The interim results we report in this discussion paper suggest overall that no framework dominates on all margins. As a result, the ranking depends on the relative weight placed on different criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • José Dorich & Rhys R. Mendes & Yang Zhang, 2021. "The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations," Discussion Papers 2021-13, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:21-13
    DOI: 10.34989/sdp-2021-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.34989/sdp-2021-13
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/sdp2021-13.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.34989/sdp-2021-13?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alpanda, Sami & Zubairy, Sarah, 2017. "Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-73.
    2. Sushant Acharya & Edouard Challe & Keshav Dogra, 2023. "Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(7), pages 1741-1782, July.
    3. Donald Coletti & René Lalonde & Dirk Muir, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Price-Level-Path Targeting in the Global Economy Model: Some Open Economy Considerations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 326-338, June.
    4. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    5. Robert Amano & Thomas J. Carter & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2020. "Strengthening Inflation Targeting: Review and Renewal Processes in Canada and Other Advanced Jurisdictions," Discussion Papers 2020-7, Bank of Canada.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    7. Thomas J Carter & Rhys Mendes & Lawrence L Schembri, 2018. "Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Robert Amano & Stefano Gnocchi & Sylvain Leduc & Joel Wagner, 2020. "Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB," Staff Working Papers 20-31, Bank of Canada.
    9. Paul Corrigan & Hélène Desgagnés & José Dorich & Vadym Lepetyuk & Wataru Miyamoto & Yang Zhang, 2021. "ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis," Technical Reports 119, Bank of Canada.
    10. Smets, Frank, 2003. "Maintaining price stability: how long is the medium term?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1293-1309, September.
    11. Rhys R. Mendes & Stephen Murchison, 2014. "Should Forward Guidance Be Backward-Looking?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2014(Autumn), pages 12-22.
    12. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    13. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2020. "Understanding HANK: Insights From a PRANK," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1113-1158, May.
    14. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vivian Chu & Yang Zhang, 2022. "Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-13, Bank of Canada.
    2. Cars Hommes & Mario He & Sebastian Poledna & Melissa Siqueira & Yang Zhang, 2022. "CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model," Staff Working Papers 22-51, Bank of Canada.
    3. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Janus, Jakub & Mucha, Krystian, 2025. "Shades of inflation targeting: insights from fractional integration," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29, pages 1-1, January.
    4. Joel Wagner & Tudor Schlanger & Yang Zhang, 2022. "A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality," Discussion Papers 2022-4, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cars Hommes & Mario He & Sebastian Poledna & Melissa Siqueira & Yang Zhang, 2022. "CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model," Staff Working Papers 22-51, Bank of Canada.
    2. Masek, Frantisek & Zemlicka, Jan, 2024. "Average inflation targeting: how far to look into the past and the future?," Working Paper Series 2955, European Central Bank.
    3. Leitemo, Kai & Lonning, Ingunn, 2006. "Simple Monetary Policymaking without the Output Gap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1619-1640, September.
    4. Dennis, Richard & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2006. "How Important Is Precommitment for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 847-872, June.
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2013. "International Evidence on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 913-932, August.
    6. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    7. Michael Woodford, 2007. "Interpreting Inflation Persistence: Comments on the Conference on “Quantitative Evidence on Price Determination”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 203-210, February.
    8. Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
    9. Stefan Tanevski & Marjan Petreski, 2026. "Wage Rigidity, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Inflation Persistence in Transition Economies: A Cohort-Based Institutional Approach," Papers 2605.16862, arXiv.org.
    10. Lim, King Yoong & Liu, Chunping & Zhang, Shuonan, 2024. "Optimal central banking policies: Envisioning the post-digital yuan economy with loan prime rate-setting," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Zhao Han & Xiaohan Ma & Ruoyun Mao, 2023. "The Role of Dispersed Information in Inflation and Inflation Expectations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 72-106, April.
    12. Kuchta, Zbigniew, . "Sztywność płac nominalnych w modelach DSGE małej skali. Analiza empiryczna dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2014(6).
    13. Yasufumi Gemma & Takushi Kurozumi & Mototsugu Shintani, 2023. "Trend Inflation and Evolving Inflation Dynamics:A Bayesian GMM Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 506-520, December.
    14. Boubaker Heni & Canarella Giorgio & Gupta Rangan & Miller Stephen M., 2017. "Time-varying persistence of inflation: evidence from a wavelet-based approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    15. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2008. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 627-666, June.
    16. Cassou, Steven P. & Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2010. "New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    17. Duncan, Alfred J. M. & Nolan, Charles, 2019. "Disputes, debt and equity," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), July.
    18. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & José Simão Filho & Elder Tiago C. de Souza, 2023. "Can central bank credibility promote a substitution effect in the monetary transmission mechanism?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(51), pages 5975-5990, November.
    19. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Vilmi, Lauri, 2013. "How have inflation dynamics changed over time? Evidence from the euro area and USA," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2013, Bank of Finland.
    20. Hilde Bjørnland & Kai Leitemo & Junior Maih, 2011. "Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 755-777, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:21-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.