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Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance

Author

Listed:
  • Vivian Chu
  • Yang Zhang

Abstract

A low level of the neutral rate of interest increases the likelihood that a central bank’s policy rate will reach its effective lower bound (ELB) in future economic downturns. In a low neutral rate environment, using an extended monetary policy toolkit including forward guidance helps address the ELB challenge. Using the Bank’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, we assess the benefits and limitations of a state-contingent forward guidance implemented within a flexible inflation targeting framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Vivian Chu & Yang Zhang, 2022. "Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-13, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:22-13
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/09/staff-analytical-note-2022-13/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guyllaume Faucher & Christopher Hajzler & Martin Kuncl & Dmitry Matveev & Youngmin Park & Temel Taskin, 2022. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-3, Bank of Canada.
    2. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas D. Smith, 2017. "Are Low Real Interest Rates Here to Stay?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 1-42, September.
    3. Thomas J Carter & Rhys Mendes & Lawrence L Schembri, 2018. "Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Rhys R. Mendes, 2014. "The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada," Discussion Papers 14-5, Bank of Canada.
    5. Paul Corrigan & Hélène Desgagnés & José Dorich & Vadym Lepetyuk & Wataru Miyamoto & Yang Zhang, 2021. "ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis," Technical Reports 119, Bank of Canada.
    6. José Dorich & Rhys R. Mendes & Yang Zhang, 2021. "The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations," Discussion Papers 2021-13, Bank of Canada.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank research; Economic models; Monetary policy framework; Monetary policy transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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