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Le taux neutre au Canada : mise à jour de 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas J. Carter
  • Xin Scott Chen
  • José Dorich

Abstract

Cette note met à jour l’évaluation par le personnel de la Banque du taux neutre canadien, c’est-à-dire le taux directeur requis pour maintenir la production à son niveau potentiel et l’inflation à son taux cible, une fois disparus les effets des chocs cycliques. Ce concept de moyen à long terme sert de point de référence pour évaluer le degré de détente monétaire résultant d’une politique donnée. Selon l’évaluation globale du personnel, qui est basée sur la juxtaposition des résultats de quatre approches distinctes, le taux neutre canadien se situe probablement dans une fourchette allant de 2,25 à 3,25 % en termes nominaux, ce qui est un peu plus bas que la fourchette de 2,5 à 3,5 % publiée lors de la dernière mise à jour, en avril 2018. Même si cette révision à la baisse découle surtout d’une réduction de la valeur estimée du taux neutre mondial, l’évaluation globale résulte également d’une meilleure modélisation, qui a permis au personnel de mieux rendre compte des effets à moyen et long terme des risques macroéconomiques sur le niveau du taux neutre. Par ailleurs, bien que la fourchette du taux neutre estimée par le personnel tienne compte d’importantes sources d’incertitude, elle ne devrait pas pour autant être vue comme la résultante de l’ensemble des incertitudes qui entourent le taux neutre.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "Le taux neutre au Canada : mise à jour de 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11fr, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-11fr
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modèles économiques; Politique monétaire; Taux d'intérêt;

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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