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The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas J. Carter
  • Xin Scott Chen
  • José Dorich

Abstract

This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting. Staff’s overall assessment, which is based on the combined output of a suite of four distinct approaches, is that the Canadian neutral rate likely lies in a range of 2.25 to 3.25 per cent in nominal terms, lower than the range of 2.5 to 3.5 per cent reported at the time of the last update in April 2018. Although this downward shift stems mainly from a lower assessed global neutral rate, the overall assessment also reflects some improved modelling techniques enabling staff to better capture the medium- to long-run impact of macroeconomic risk on the level of the neutral rate. Moreover, while staff’s assessed range for the neutral rate captures important sources of uncertainty, it should not be interpreted as reflecting the full extent of the uncertainties surrounding the neutral rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. José Dorich & Abeer Reza & Subrata Sarker, 2017. "An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2017(Autumn), pages 27-41.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Cacciatore & Bruno Feunou & Galip Kemal Ozhan, 2024. "The Neutral Interest Rate: Past, Present and Future," Discussion Papers 2024-03, Bank of Canada.
    2. Dmitry Matveev & Julien McDonald-Guimond & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2020. "The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-24, Bank of Canada.
    3. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    4. Marc Lavoie & Mario Seccareccia, 2019. "Macroeconomics and natural rates: some reflections on Pasinetti’s fair rate of interest," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 13(2), pages 139-165, December.
    5. James Bootsma & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Christopher Hajzler & Argyn Toktamyssov, 2020. "2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment," Discussion Papers 2020-12, Bank of Canada.
    6. Alex Ilek & Guy Segal, 2022. "A Simple Theory-Based Estimate of the Real Natural Rate of Interest in Open Economies," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2022.06, Bank of Israel.
    7. Thomas J. Carter & Rhys R. Mendes, 2020. "The Power of Helicopter Money Revisited: A New Keynesian Perspective," Discussion Papers 2020-1, Bank of Canada.
    8. Guyllaume Faucher & Christopher Hajzler & Martin Kuncl & Dmitry Matveev & Youngmin Park & Temel Taskin, 2022. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-3, Bank of Canada.
    9. Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-6, Bank of Canada.
    10. Julien Champagne & Christopher Hajzler & Dmitry Matveev & Harlee Melinchuk & Antoine Poulin-Moore & Kemal Ozhan & Youngmin Park & Temel Taskin, 2023. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-6, Bank of Canada.
    11. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?," BIS Working Papers 982, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour markets; Potential output; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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