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Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas J. Carter
  • Xin Scott Chen
  • Ali Jaffery
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Jonathan Lachaine
  • Peter Shannon
  • Subrata Sarker
  • Graeme Westwood
  • Beiling Yan

Abstract

We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Christopher Hajzler & Jonathan Lachaine & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker & Graeme Westwood & Beiling Yan, 2021. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-5, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:21-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roine, Jesper & Vlachos, Jonas & Waldenström, Daniel, 2009. "The long-run determinants of inequality: What can we learn from top income data?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 974-988, August.
    2. Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-6, Bank of Canada.
    3. Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Guillaume Nolin & Karim Salhab & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker, 2020. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020," Discussion Papers 2020-10, Bank of Canada.
    4. Rhys R. Mendes, 2014. "The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada," Discussion Papers 14-5, Bank of Canada.
    5. Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-6, Bank of Canada.
    2. Kyle Boutilier & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Eshini Ekanayake & Louis Poirier & Peter Shannon & Akash Uppal & Lin Xiang, 2022. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-4, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Monetary policy; Potential output; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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