IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocsan/21-5.html

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas J. Carter
  • Xin Scott Chen
  • Ali Jaffery
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Jonathan Lachaine
  • Peter Shannon
  • Subrata Sarker
  • Graeme Westwood
  • Beiling Yan

Abstract

We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Christopher Hajzler & Jonathan Lachaine & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker & Graeme Westwood & Beiling Yan, 2021. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-5, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:21-5
    DOI: 10.34989/san-2021-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.34989/san-2021-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/san2021-5.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.34989/san-2021-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roine, Jesper & Vlachos, Jonas & Waldenström, Daniel, 2009. "The long-run determinants of inequality: What can we learn from top income data?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 974-988, August.
    2. Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Guillaume Nolin & Karim Salhab & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker, 2020. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020," Discussion Papers 2020-10, Bank of Canada.
    3. Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-6, Bank of Canada.
    4. Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13, Bank of Canada.
    5. Rhys R. Mendes, 2014. "The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada," Discussion Papers 14-5, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kyle Boutilier & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Eshini Ekanayake & Louis Poirier & Peter Shannon & Akash Uppal & Lin Xiang, 2022. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-4, Bank of Canada.
    2. Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-6, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyle Boutilier & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Eshini Ekanayake & Louis Poirier & Peter Shannon & Akash Uppal & Lin Xiang, 2022. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-4, Bank of Canada.
    2. James Bootsma & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Christopher Hajzler & Argyn Toktamyssov, 2020. "2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment," Discussion Papers 2020-12, Bank of Canada.
    3. Guyllaume Faucher & Christopher Hajzler & Martin Kuncl & Dmitry Matveev & Youngmin Park & Temel Taskin, 2022. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-3, Bank of Canada.
    4. Palagi, Elisa & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Gaffard, Jean-Luc, 2023. "An agent-based model of trickle-up growth and income inequality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    6. A. B Atkinson & Andrew Leigh, 2013. "The Distribution of Top Incomes in Five Anglo-Saxon Countries Over the Long Run," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89, pages 31-47, June.
    7. Manfred M. Fischer & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2018. "The transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality: State-level evidence from the United States," Working Papers in Economics 2018-4, University of Salzburg.
    8. Chletsos Michael & Roupakias Stelios, 2020. "The effect of military spending on income inequality: evidence from NATO countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1305-1337, March.
    9. Rolf Aaberge & Marco Francesconi & Jørgen Modalsli & Ola L. Vestad, 2024. "How Business Income Measures Affect Income Inequality and the Tax Burden," CESifo Working Paper Series 11496, CESifo.
    10. Lucia Errico & Andrea Mosca & Sandro Rondinella & Carmela Ciccarelli, 2024. "The Role Of Natural Hazard On Income Inequality," Working Papers 202402, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    11. Dmitry Matveev & Julien McDonald-Guimond & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2020. "The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-24, Bank of Canada.
    12. Steinberg, Daniel, 2017. "Resource shocks and human capital stocks – Brain drain or brain gain?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 250-268.
    13. Foellmi, Reto & Martínez, Isabel Z., 2014. "Volatile Top Income Shares in Switzerland? Reassessing the Evolution Between 1981 and 2009," CEPR Discussion Papers 10006, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Mursit Recepoglu, 2022. "Public Expenditures, Economic Growth and Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 293-314, July.
    15. Campbell, Douglas L. & Lusher, Lester, 2019. "The impact of real exchange rate shocks on manufacturing workers: An autopsy from the MORG," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 12-28.
    16. Zsolt Darvas & Guntram B. Wolff, . "An anatomy of inclusive growth in Europe," Bruegel Blueprints, Bruegel, number 17266.
    17. Nicholas Apergis & Francisco J. Delgado & Claudia Suárez‐Arbesú, 2025. "Inequality and poverty in Spain: Insights from a regional convergence analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1707-1723, April.
    18. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2016. "Distributional Consequences of Commodity Price Shocks: Australia Over A Century," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(2), pages 223-244, June.
    19. Martin Kuncl & Dmitry Matveev, 2023. "The Canadian Neutral Rate of Interest through the Lens of an Overlapping-Generations Model," Discussion Papers 2023-5, Bank of Canada.
    20. Sylvain Petit, 2017. "International trade in services and inequalities," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1069-1075, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:21-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.