IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocsan/21-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas J. Carter
  • Xin Scott Chen
  • Ali Jaffery
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Jonathan Lachaine
  • Peter Shannon
  • Subrata Sarker
  • Graeme Westwood
  • Beiling Yan

Abstract

We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Christopher Hajzler & Jonathan Lachaine & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker & Graeme Westwood & Beiling Yan, 2021. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-5, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:21-5
    DOI: 10.34989/san-2021-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.34989/san-2021-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/san2021-5.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.34989/san-2021-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roine, Jesper & Vlachos, Jonas & Waldenström, Daniel, 2009. "The long-run determinants of inequality: What can we learn from top income data?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 974-988, August.
    2. Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-6, Bank of Canada.
    3. Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Guillaume Nolin & Karim Salhab & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker, 2020. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020," Discussion Papers 2020-10, Bank of Canada.
    4. Rhys R. Mendes, 2014. "The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada," Discussion Papers 14-5, Bank of Canada.
    5. Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kyle Boutilier & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Eshini Ekanayake & Louis Poirier & Peter Shannon & Akash Uppal & Lin Xiang, 2022. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-4, Bank of Canada.
    2. Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-6, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyle Boutilier & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Eshini Ekanayake & Louis Poirier & Peter Shannon & Akash Uppal & Lin Xiang, 2022. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-4, Bank of Canada.
    2. James Bootsma & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Christopher Hajzler & Argyn Toktamyssov, 2020. "2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment," Discussion Papers 2020-12, Bank of Canada.
    3. Guyllaume Faucher & Christopher Hajzler & Martin Kuncl & Dmitry Matveev & Youngmin Park & Temel Taskin, 2022. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-3, Bank of Canada.
    4. Campbell, Douglas L. & Lusher, Lester, 2019. "The impact of real exchange rate shocks on manufacturing workers: An autopsy from the MORG," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 12-28.
    5. Block, Joern H. & Hirschmann, Mirko & Kranz, Tobias & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023. "Public family firms and economic inequality across societies," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    6. Roberto Iacono & Elisa Palagi, 2020. "Still the lands of equality? On the heterogeneity of individual factor income shares in the Nordics," LEM Papers Series 2020/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Elina Tuominen, 2024. "Top-end inequality and growth: empirical exploration of nonlinearities and the time dimension," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 22(2), pages 311-331, June.
    8. Bartels, Charlotte, 2019. "Top Incomes in Germany, 1871–2014," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(3), pages 669-707, September.
    9. Erik Bengtsson & Enrico Rubolino & Daniel Waldenström, 2020. "What Determines the Capital Share over the Long Run of History?," World Inequality Lab Working Papers hal-02876964, HAL.
    10. Thomas Fischer, 2017. "Can Redistribution by Means of a Progressive Labor Income-Taxation Transfer System Increase Financial Stability?," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(2), pages 1-3.
    11. Anna & Leonardo Weller, 2018. "Was Cold War A Constraint To Income Inequality?," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 94, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Marc Lavoie & Mario Seccareccia, 2019. "Macroeconomics and natural rates: some reflections on Pasinetti’s fair rate of interest," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 13(2), pages 139-165, December.
    13. Franciscos Koutentakis & Kostas Chrissis, 2022. "Top Income Shares in Greece From Dictatorship to Crisis: 1967–2017," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(3), pages 653-666, September.
    14. Anthony B. Atkinson & Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2011. "Top Incomes in the Long Run of History," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-71, March.
    15. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Barseghyan, Gayane, 2019. "Sanctions and counter-sanctions : What did they do?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    17. Saha, Anjan K. & Mishra, Vinod, 2020. "Genetic distance, economic growth and top income shares: Evidence from OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 37-47.
    18. Andreas Peichl & Nico Pestel & Sebastian Siegloch, 2013. "The politicians’ wage gap: insights from German members of parliament," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 653-676, September.
    19. Balcilar, Mehmet & Berisha, Edmond & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "Time-varying evidence of predictability of financial stress in the United States over a century: The role of inequality," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 87-92.
    20. Njangang, Henri & Beleck, Alim & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Kamguia, Brice, 2022. "Do ICTs drive wealth inequality? Evidence from a dynamic panel analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:21-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.