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Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Fares Bounajm
  • Jean-Philippe Cayen
  • Michael Francis
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Kristina Hess
  • Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle
  • Peter Selcuk

Abstract

This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon. Two common themes are weighing on potential output growth across regions: trade disputes, which are reducing total factor productivity growth in the United States and China; and aging, which is having a negative impact on labour force participation in the United States, China, the euro area and Japan. While potential output growth is expected to remain fairly stable in the United States, there are offsetting dynamics across other regions. In emerging-market economies, potential growth is projected to strengthen, mainly due to a recovery of investment as well as structural reforms contributing to total factor productivity growth. Potential output is expected to slow in Japan, China and the euro area, as the effects on growth of population aging and declining labour inputs intensify in these regions over the next three years. A moderation in investment growth will also contribute to slower potential growth in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-13
    DOI: 10.34989/san-2019-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2009. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life Cycle and Implications for Regulation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 51-117.
    3. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    4. Shoshana Grossbard (ed.), 2006. "Jacob Mincer A Pioneer of Modern Labor Economics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-0-387-29175-8, December.
    5. Jeannine Bailliu & Christopher Hajzler, 2016. "Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging-Market Economies," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2016(Autumn), pages 47-60.
    6. Laibson, David I. & Agarwal, Sumit & Driscoll, John C. & Gabaix, Xavier, 2009. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life-Cycle with Implications for Regulation," Scholarly Articles 4554335, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Karyne B. Charbonneau & Alexa Evans & Subrata Sarker & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature," Staff Analytical Notes 17-20, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Christopher Hajzler & Jonathan Lachaine & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker & Graeme Westwood & Beiling Yan, 2021. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-5, Bank of Canada.
    2. Kyle Boutilier & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Eshini Ekanayake & Louis Poirier & Peter Shannon & Akash Uppal & Lin Xiang, 2022. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-4, Bank of Canada.

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    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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