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Évaluation de la croissance de la production potentielle mondiale : avril 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Fares Bounajm
  • Jean-Philippe Cayen
  • Michael Francis
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Kristina Hess
  • Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle
  • Peter Selcuk

Abstract

Cette note présente les estimations actualisées de la croissance de la production potentielle pour l’économie mondiale jusqu’en 2021. La production potentielle mondiale devrait croître à un rythme de 3,3 % par année au cours de la période de projection. Deux éléments pèsent sur la croissance de la production potentielle dans l’ensemble des régions : les différends commerciaux, qui entravent la croissance de la productivité totale des facteurs aux États-Unis et en Chine, et le vieillissement démographique, qui influe négativement sur le taux d’activité de la population aux États-Unis, en Chine, dans la zone euro et au Japon. La production potentielle devrait continuer de croître à un rythme assez stable aux États-Unis, mais on observe des dynamiques qui se contrebalancent dans les autres régions. Ainsi, la croissance de la production potentielle devrait se raffermir dans les économies émergentes, notamment grâce à une reprise de l’investissement et à des réformes structurelles contribuant à un accroissement de la productivité totale des facteurs. Au Japon, en Chine et dans la zone euro, en revanche, on s’attend à un ralentissement sous l’effet modérateur croissant du vieillissement de la population et de la diminution du facteur travail au cours des trois prochaines années. Dans le cas de la Chine, une modération du taux de progression des investissements participera aussi au ralentissement de la croissance potentielle.

Suggested Citation

  • Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Évaluation de la croissance de la production potentielle mondiale : avril 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13fr, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-13fr
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin F. Jones, 2010. "Age and Great Invention," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-14, February.
    2. repec:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/696225 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Carol Khoury & Natalia Kyui & Jeffrey Mollins & Youngmin Park, 2019. "Production potentielle au Canada : réévaluation de 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-10fr, Bank of Canada.
    4. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2016. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 22452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Laibson, David I. & Agarwal, Sumit & Driscoll, John C. & Gabaix, Xavier, 2009. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life-Cycle with Implications for Regulation," Scholarly Articles 4554335, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2009. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life Cycle and Implications for Regulation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 51-117.
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    9. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2016. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 22452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Production potentielle; Productivité; Questions internationales;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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