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Évaluation de la croissance de la production potentielle mondiale : avril 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Fares Bounajm
  • Jean-Philippe Cayen
  • Michael Francis
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Kristina Hess
  • Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle
  • Peter Selcuk

Abstract

Cette note présente les estimations actualisées de la croissance de la production potentielle pour l’économie mondiale jusqu’en 2021. La production potentielle mondiale devrait croître à un rythme de 3,3 % par année au cours de la période de projection. Deux éléments pèsent sur la croissance de la production potentielle dans l’ensemble des régions : les différends commerciaux, qui entravent la croissance de la productivité totale des facteurs aux États-Unis et en Chine, et le vieillissement démographique, qui influe négativement sur le taux d’activité de la population aux États-Unis, en Chine, dans la zone euro et au Japon. La production potentielle devrait continuer de croître à un rythme assez stable aux États-Unis, mais on observe des dynamiques qui se contrebalancent dans les autres régions. Ainsi, la croissance de la production potentielle devrait se raffermir dans les économies émergentes, notamment grâce à une reprise de l’investissement et à des réformes structurelles contribuant à un accroissement de la productivité totale des facteurs. Au Japon, en Chine et dans la zone euro, en revanche, on s’attend à un ralentissement sous l’effet modérateur croissant du vieillissement de la population et de la diminution du facteur travail au cours des trois prochaines années. Dans le cas de la Chine, une modération du taux de progression des investissements participera aussi au ralentissement de la croissance potentielle.

Suggested Citation

  • Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Évaluation de la croissance de la production potentielle mondiale : avril 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13fr, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-13fr
    DOI: 10.34989/san-2019-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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