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Production potentielle au Canada : réévaluation de 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Dany Brouillette
  • Julien Champagne
  • Carol Khoury
  • Natalia Kyui
  • Jeffrey Mollins
  • Youngmin Park

Abstract

La production potentielle devrait afficher une croissance moyenne de 1,8 % de 2019 à 2021 et de 1,9 % en 2022. Même si l’apport du facteur travail tendanciel à la croissance de la production potentielle devrait diminuer entre 2019 et 2022, celui de la productivité tendancielle du travail devrait augmenter. Le profil des taux de croissance de la production potentielle est similaire à celui établi lors de la réévaluation d’avril 2018, malgré une légère révision à la baisse pour 2020 et 2021. Ce nouveau profil tient compte d’un assombrissement des perspectives d’investissement des entreprises, en grande partie contrebalancé par des projections à la hausse pour ce qui est de la croissance démographique. Selon les divers scénarios étudiés, la fourchette des estimations de croissance de la production potentielle s’élargit, allant de 1,5 à 2,1 % en 2019 et de 1,3 à 2,5 % en 2022.

Suggested Citation

  • Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Carol Khoury & Natalia Kyui & Jeffrey Mollins & Youngmin Park, 2019. "Production potentielle au Canada : réévaluation de 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-10fr, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-10fr
    DOI: 10.34989/san-2019-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Audra J. Bowlus & Chris Robinson, 2012. "Human Capital Prices, Productivity, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3483-3515, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Évaluation de la croissance de la production potentielle mondiale : avril 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13fr, Bank of Canada.
    2. Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Julien McDonald-Guimond, 2020. "Production potentielle au Canada : réévaluation de 2020," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-25fr, Bank of Canada.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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