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Production potentielle au Canada : réévaluation de 2020

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  • Dany Brouillette
  • Julien Champagne
  • Julien McDonald-Guimond

Abstract

Après la crise de la COVID-19, la croissance de la production potentielle devrait se stabiliser à environ 1,2 %, ce qui est inférieur à la croissance moyenne de 1,8 % observée de 2010 à 2018. Le profil de croissance a été revu à la baisse par rapport à celui établi lors de la réévaluation d’avril 2019. Comme l’évolution de la pandémie est inconnue, ces estimations sont empreintes d’une plus grande incertitude que dans les années précédentes.

Suggested Citation

  • Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Julien McDonald-Guimond, 2020. "Production potentielle au Canada : réévaluation de 2020," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-25fr, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:20-25fr
    DOI: 10.34989/san-2020-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Crisis, potential output and hysteresis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 149, pages 1-14.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    3. Pedro Brinca & Joao B. Duarte & Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2020. "Is the COVID-19 Pandemic a Supply or a Demand Shock?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 31, May.
    4. Vighneswara Swamy, 2020. "Debt and growth: Decomposing the cause and effect relationship," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 141-156, April.
    5. Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Carol Khoury & Natalia Kyui & Jeffrey Mollins & Youngmin Park, 2019. "Production potentielle au Canada : réévaluation de 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-10fr, Bank of Canada.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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