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Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Xin Scott Chen
  • Ali Jaffery
  • Guillaume Nolin
  • Karim Salhab
  • Peter Shannon
  • Subrata Sarker

Abstract

This paper presents updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2022. Global potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and recover partially by the end of the projection horizon of the October 2020 Monetary Policy Report. More specifically, global potential output growth is expected to decline from 3.3 percent in 2019 to 2.1 percent in 2020 and then recover gradually to 2.7 percent by 2022. While growth is expected to decline in all regions, the negative effects of COVID-19 on trend labour productivity growth in emerging market economies are the largest contributor to the overall expected slowdown in global growth. This also reflects Bank of Canada staff’s assessments of ongoing headwinds from aging, trade tensions and structurally low trend total factor productivity growth across all regions. A partial recovery in all regions is expected to be driven mainly by the gradual recovery in trend total factor productivity growth and trend labour input growth. In the US, potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in 2020, mostly due to a decline in the trend participation rate and a reduction in the growth rate of immigration. By 2022, US potential output growth is expected to partially recover due to an improvement in trend total factor productivity growth and a modest recovery in trend labour input growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Guillaume Nolin & Karim Salhab & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker, 2020. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020," Discussion Papers 2020-10, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:20-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    3. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David Wiczer, 2020. "Pandemic Recession: L- or V-Shaped?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 40(01), pages 1-31, May.
    4. Ryan A. Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2017. "Declining Dynamism, Allocative Efficiency, and the Productivity Slowdown," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 322-326, May.
    5. Nicholas Bloom & James Liang & John Roberts & Zhichun Jenny Ying, 2015. "Does Working from Home Work? Evidence from a Chinese Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 165-218.
    6. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2020. "COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 329-383.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Julien McDonald-Guimond, 2020. "Potential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-25, Bank of Canada.
    2. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Christopher Hajzler & Jonathan Lachaine & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker & Graeme Westwood & Beiling Yan, 2021. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-5, Bank of Canada.
    3. James Bootsma & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Christopher Hajzler & Argyn Toktamyssov, 2020. "2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment," Discussion Papers 2020-12, Bank of Canada.
    4. Kyle Boutilier & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Eshini Ekanayake & Louis Poirier & Peter Shannon & Akash Uppal & Lin Xiang, 2022. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-4, Bank of Canada.
    5. Salma Ahmed & Aviel Avshalumov & Tania Chaar & Eshini Ekanayake & Helen Lao & Louis Poirier & Jenna Rolland-Mills & Argyn Toktamyssov & Lin Xiang, 2023. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-5, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential output; Productivity;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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