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Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Amano
  • Stefano Gnocchi
  • Sylvain Leduc
  • Joel Wagner

Abstract

The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound. This has renewed interest in monetary policies that embed makeup strategies, such as price-level or average-inflation targeting. This paper examines the properties of average-inflation targeting in a two-agent New Keynesian (TANK) model in which a fraction of firms have adaptive expectations. We examine the optimal degree of history dependence under average-inflation targeting and find it to be relatively short for business cycle shocks of standard magnitude and duration. In this case, we show that the properties of the economy are quantitatively similar to those under a price-level target.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Amano & Stefano Gnocchi & Sylvain Leduc & Joel Wagner, 2020. "Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB," Staff Working Papers 20-31, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:20-31
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021. "Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Chengcheng Jia & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2021. "Average Inflation Targeting: Time Inconsistency And Intentional Ambiguity," Working Papers 21-19R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 01 Feb 2022.
    3. Hoffmann, Mathias & Moench, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2022. "Would households understand average inflation targeting?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 52-66.
    4. Brent Bundick & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2021. "From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC’s New Employment Objective," Research Working Paper RWP 21-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. José Dorich & Rhys R. Mendes & Yang Zhang, 2021. "The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations," Discussion Papers 2021-13, Bank of Canada.
    6. Mota, Paulo R. & Fernandes, Abel L.C., 2022. "Is the ECB already following albeit implicitly an average inflation targeting strategy?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 149-162.
    7. Busetti, Fabio & Neri, Stefano & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2021. "Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: A model-based analysis for the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Eo, Yunjong & McClung, Nigel, 2021. "Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound," Research Discussion Papers 14/2021, Bank of Finland.
    9. Hoffmann, Mathias & Pavlova, Lora & Mönch, Emanuel & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2022. "Would households understand average inflation targeting?," Discussion Papers 17/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Olena Kostyshyna & Luba Petersen & Jing Yang, 2022. "A Horse Race of Monetary Policy Regimes: An Experimental Investigation," Staff Working Papers 22-33, Bank of Canada.
    11. Edouard Djeutem & Mario He & Abeer Reza & Yang Zhang, 2022. "Household Heterogeneity and the Performance of Monetary Policy Frameworks," Staff Working Papers 22-12, Bank of Canada.
    12. Zheng Liu & Jianjun Miao & Dongling Su, 2022. "Fiscal Stimulus Under Average Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 2022-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Economic models; Monetary policy framework;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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